458
FNUS74 KEPZ 252245
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Blue 2...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
445 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on May 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions will persist on Sunday with no precipitation in
sight. The min RHs will be around 17%. The 20ft winds will be low
end breezy around 13 mph and from the west with temperature below
the normal. The ventilation rate will be very good. Sunday
overnight recovery will be fair. For Monday, dry conditions will
continue with a decrease in the min RH of 10%. The 20ft winds will
be light to low end breezy 7 to 12 mph and from the southwest in
the afternoon. The temperature will be near the normal. The
ventilation rate will continue to be very good. With that said,
fire weather conditions will be elevated on Sunday and near
critical on Monday. For the rest of the period, there will be no
improvement in the fire weather conditions as concerns will be near
critical stage.


.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 13 mph.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (70200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (114000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      2      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............55     57     58
RH..............22     20     17
20 ft wind......W 13   W 13   W 13
20 ft wind gust.24     24     24
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   6200   6200
Transport wind..W 20   W 20   W 20
Haines index....2      3      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..70     114    114
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   VYGD   VYGD

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (105100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      3      6      6      6      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............56     52     49     48     47     45
RH..............17     19     20     18     20     22
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  S 8
20 ft wind gust.22     22     18     20     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....6200   6200   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 16  SW 16  SW 14  SW 14  S 11   S 11
Haines index....6      6      6      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..105    105    0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MEMORIAL DAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the
southwest 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest 10 to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (28000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (109200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         3         5         6
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        53        60        64
RH..............22        19        15        11
20 FT wind......SE 8G14   SE 7G17   SW 9G22   SW 12G24
Mix hgt (ft)....3500      3500      9200      9400
Transport wind..SE 10     SE 10     SW 10     SW 14
Haines index....5         4         6         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28        28        92        109
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 11 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. South
winds around 11 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 12 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Ryan Whiteaker
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415086.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.whiteaker@usda.gov