Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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Issued by NWS
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584 FOUS30 KWBC 100033 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 833 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Day 1 Valid 01Z Mon Jun 10 2024 - 12Z Mon Jun 10 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...20Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley and the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... Issued a special Day 1 ERO update to remove the Slight Risk which had been in effect across far northern AR into southern MO. Observational and mesoanalysis trends show the area that was in the Slight Risk is now behind the front, north of the ML CAPE gradient with minimal if any deep-layer instability left. Focus for convection will be south (AR, western TN, and northern MS-AL); however based on the latest CAM guidance/trends, along with the fact that these areas didn`t get the deluge of rain areas farther north did late last night/early today, the risk will likely be more isolated/localized (i.e. Marginal) than otherwise. Hurley ...Previous Discussion... ...Southern High Plains... Very few changes made across this region. Convection is likely to develop along the west Texas dryline on north and west into the New Mexico and Colorado Front Ranges. The southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northern New Mexico remain highlighted for a higher end Slight for flooding, as unusual moisture pumping into all these areas are likely to cause storms to form over recent (2022) burn scars in this area. Locally significant flash flooding will be possible. The storms that form over NM are expected to congeal into an MCS over west Texas tonight, which could cause locally higher rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches. Dry soils over nearly all of the Slight risk area should help preclude significant flash flooding...and as such no upgrades were considered. ...Northern High Plains... A ribbon of higher moisture (PWs > 1") will develop through the High Plains, into portions of eastern WY and far southeast MT. Daytime convection developing with the robust heating combined with this higher moisture may lead to a few/isolated instances of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. There is a slight (20 percent) signal in the HREF probabilities for 3" totals over northeast WY with amounts 1-2" more likely through the Marginal Risk area. ...Southern Florida... An increasing moist environment (PWs approaching 2-2.25") combined with the daily sea/land breezes will lead to robust and slower moving deep convection across both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of southern Florida. Intense rain rates (2-3"/hr) at times will be possible and could pose a localized, mainly urban, flash flood threat during the afternoon/evening hours. Wegman/Taylor Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 10 2024 - 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...20Z Update... ...Northern Plains... No significant changes were made. The flash flooding threat remains lower-end Marginal across the northern Plains, where the inherited Marginal Risk area was trimmed out of eastern ND and northwestern MN with this update. The western Plains are difficult to flash flood and moisture availability will be a significant limiting factor in any convection into the Dakotas. Nonetheless some training storms are possible, which could cause isolated instances of flash flooding in flood-sensitive areas. This area could be considered for Marginal Risk removal with future updates. ...Southern High Plains... The Marginal Risk area was expanded north and west to include the Sangre de Cristos and southern Colorado Rockies with this update. Rainfall overall will be much lesser in coverage and intensity Monday, but with these areas likely to see some isolated to widely scattered flash flooding today, think by Monday additional rainfall may lead to a Marginal flash flooding threat again. No major changes were made towards Texas, where dry line convection should also be much reduced in coverage compared with today, but here also may take advantage of more sensitive soils as a result of today`s convection to cause new isolated flash flooding again Monday afternoon. ...South Florida... Moisture will continue building from south to north across south Florida on Monday. Convective coverage should be greater than today on Monday, particularly along the sea breeze fronts on both sides of the Peninsula. Ongoing moderate to locally severe drought will significantly limit any potential for flash flooding, but increasing moisture and continued slow storm movement, possibly over urban areas, will result in isolated instances of flash flooding, and a bit further north up the Peninsula into portions of central Florida on Monday afternoon. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... ...Northern Plains... A shortwave trough and a cold front will move through the region. Ahead of this feature, a ribbon of higher moisture will be advancing northward and will be characterized by PWs between 1-1.5". Along with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg, there is good overlap of the moisture, lift, and instability to support rounds of thunderstorms by afternoon/evening. With cell mergers and boundary interactions, an isolated flash flood threat can`t be ruled out with potential for isolated 1-2"/hr rain rates that could cause flash flooding, so a Marginal Risk was introduced. ...Southern High Plains and Texas... A forming closed low straddling NM/TX border will slowly settle east/southeast through the period and across the entire region there should be fairly high moisture remaining in place (PWs 1.25-1.75") that will support scattered thunderstorms. The focus will be on the Texas Panhandle southward into west-central Texas where totals may approach 1-3". ...Southern Florida... Deep tropical moisture characterized by PWs well above 2-2.5", near 2.7", will overspread much of southern Florida, drawn northward by the larger scale troughing dipping down into the Southeast U.S. by late Monday into Tuesday morning. With a frontal boundary lingering over the region, this will act as the focus for slower moving and intense thunderstorms. Placement/coverage of heaviest rainfall is still a bit uncertain, though the latest/00Z guidance is favoring the southwest FL coastal areas for the potential for several inches. With the very dry conditions in place leading up to this, the Marginal Risk was maintained to highlight potential for isolated instances of flash flooding, primarily for the most vulnerable locations including urban areas. Taylor Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 - 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...20Z Update... In coordination with KEY/Key West, FL; MFL/Miami, FL; TBW/Tampa, FL; and MLB/Melbourne, FL forecast offices, a Slight Risk upgrade was introduced with this update for much of southern Florida. An air mass with anomalous moisture to 3 sigma above normal (PWATs above 2 inches) will move into south Florida on Tuesday and persist through much of the week. For Tuesday, the flash flooding concerns are largely tied to where there was flooding today and Monday. The deep moisture will bring periods of heavy rainfall across the Peninsula. Widespread 1 to 3 inch totals with locally higher amounts as high as 5 inches are possible on Tuesday. The guidance is in general agreement that the higher totals will be along the west coast from Ft. Meyers south. However, even the slightly lower forecast totals into the east coast could still cause local flooding concerns, particularly in urban areas. The Drought Monitor shows much of the Lake Okeechobee area, as well as Tampa to Ft. Meyers, as well as the Treasure Coast are all in severe drought. These very dry antecedent conditions will certainly preclude a lot of flooding. Hence, urban areas and those areas harder hit by storms today and Monday will be the most vulnerable to flooding come Tuesday when everyone is hit with locally heavy rainfall. Thus, while this is a lower-end Slight, the widespread nature of the heavy rainfall (and this being just the start of a multi-day heavy rainfall event), think flooding will be more widely scattered in southern Florida, necessitating the upgrade. ...North-Central Texas... The Marginal Risk in the area was shifted a bit west with this update in keeping with the latest guidance. Storms will be widely scattered but this area of Texas has been hard hit in recent weeks to the last month, so isolated flash flooding is certainly possible...including into the Metroplex. It`s possible a targeted Slight may be needed with future updates with more certainty and CAMs guidance pinpointing where the heaviest rainfall will be. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... ...Southern Florida... By mid-week, confidence in more widespread unsettled/stormy weather increases across the Keys and southern Florida as the deep tropical moisture remains in place and a lingering surface boundary resides in the region. PWs are forecast to be well above 2.5" and could approach daily max values by Wednesday. Across the 00Z guidance suite, rainfall amounts are higher compared to earlier in the week with the potential for another round of deep, slow moving convection producing several inches and intense rain rates. The greatest focus remains on the Keys and southwest FLorida, but the threat extends to the southeast coast and into portions of central Florida as well. For now, will maintain the Marginal RIsk but will need to monitor conditions if repeating daily rounds start to saturate the soils by mid week, necessitating an upgrade to Slight at some point. ...Southern Plains... The aforementioned shortwave trough will slide east/southeast through Texas and Oklahoma during the period. This extra source of lift combined with the already moist environment in place, PWs above 1.5", and the expected source of higher instability should contribute to scattered/numerous areas of thunderstorms by afternoon/evening. At this point, model agreement in the placement of the heaviest rainfall (northern TX/southern OK) is pretty good and overall amounts line up well among the various deterministic and ensemble guidance (for 1-2", locally 3"). At this point, the Marginal Risk looks good but could see a targeted Slight upgrade at some in the next few updates as confidence in amounts and locations become clearer. Taylor Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt