729
FXUS64 KEWX 222308 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
608 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

* Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for isolated to scattered severe storms
  this evening across portions of the northern Hill Country and
  central Texas.
* Dangerous heat indices this afternoon and Thursday afternoon,
  especially across the Rio Grande Plains - those spending extended
  time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be
  susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat
  precautions.

Early this afternoon has seen the morning stratus slowly erode along
with the thickest of the haze (combination of the high humidity and
smoke coming from the agricultural burning in Mexico and Central
America). A pocket of mid-level moisture also was able to develop a
few morning showers earlier as well from the I-35 corridor down into
the coastal plains. It`s no surprise but highs will commonly reach
the low to mid 90s again this afternoon while locations towards the
Rio Grande eclipse 100 degrees. Heat indices across the Rio Grande
plains climb into the 108 to 113 range and thus the Heat Advisory
across those counties remains on target. Elsewhere, peak heat
indices into the 100 to 108 degree range will be common. That`s the
heat headlines today but now let`s talk about the convective chances
from late this afternoon through tonight down below.

Strong to severe thunderstorms have already begun to fire along a
cold front to the north across Central Texas from near Sterling City
to Cicso. While activity along and ahead of the cold front will be
our primary concern later this evening through tonight over our
northern counties, it is expected to take some time for this
activity to reach our CWA. Portions of the Rio Grande may actually
be the first location to see a storm enter our region as an isolated
cell or two fires off the higher terrain of Mexico to our west and
the dryline. Now back to our main round, the CAMs continue to
indicate a cluster of isolated to scattered strong to severe storms
advancing east-southeastward into Llano and Burnet Counties near the
7 to 10 PM time frame, and a potential as far south as the Austin
metro area beyond 9 to 10 PM. The primary severe hazards will
include large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. While an
isolated tornado threat is possible, the greatest risk for a tornado
should generally focus north of our CWA. Towards the south and
southwest, convective inhibition will be on the increase from the
late evening through tonight. This will lead to a weakening trend of
the storms at that time, eventually dissipating. We continue to not
expect for the storms to reach the San Antonio metro area or south
of I-10 at this time.

Overnight tonight through Thursday morning will once again trend of
very warm and humid conditions with the lows in the 70s to near 80
degrees. Low stratus along with thicker haze will return as well.
Several of the CAMs show possible redevelopment of rain and storms
across portions of the San Angelo CWA through early Thursday
morning. There is a low possibility for this activity to clip our
northern most Hill Country counties later Thursday morning into
early afternoon. Inserted a small region of 15 to 20 PoPs across
those counties between 15 UTC and 21 UTC. Otherwise, the remainder
of Thursday should stay dry with more heat as highlighted below.

Thursday afternoon is expected to trend as hot or perhaps slightly
hotter than today with skies becoming sunny to mostly sunny area
wide by late afternoon. 90s will be common for most locations and
areas along the Rio Grande return up into the 100 to 105 degree
range. Heat indices nearly match today`s numbers with 100 to 108
degrees ranging for majority of the region while the Rio Grande
Plains has the peak heat indices top out in the 108 to 113 range.
Another Heat Advisory is likely for the same counties as today but
will pass issuance to the overnight shift given the ongoing heat
hazard and today`s severe weather potential. Low stratus and some
haze will likely make a return during the overnight into early
Friday with lows again mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place over Mexico through the
long term period, which will generally lead to a warming trend
through the Memorial Day Weekend with Heat Advisories and/or
Warnings likely. A small vort max, primarily indicated by the GFS,
may move across central Texas late Friday afternoon and into the
evening which could spark an isolated storm or two across our
northeastern counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to
prevail through the weekend. At this time, Sunday appears to be the
warmest day for south-central Texas, though each day through the
weekend will have dangerous heat for those spending prolonged
periods outdoors and not taking the proper precautions. Daily record
MaxT`s and record warm MinT`s will also likely be challenged or set
each day across the area. Del Rio specifically may set a new all
time MaxT record for the month of May as well, which was tied at
109F earlier this month.

A welcomed drop in temperatures may occur Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week as a cold front works into the area from the north.
Temperatures will still likely be above average, yet noticeably
different from the previous days. This front may also bring some
isolated storm potential as well late Monday through Wednesday as
the boundary lingers near the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Widespread haze can be expected to continue limiting visibilities to
5-6 miles. Meanwhile, TSRA has a good chance to impact the terminal
at AUS, so have opted for a TEMPO group and moved the timing up an
hour earlier than the previous package as storms look to arrive
sooner than later in the evening. Winds remain elevated and gusty out
of the SSE at 10-20 kts, gusting to 20-30 kts at times. Expect that
to continue through about 05-06Z before they lighten up to about 5-15
kts. MVFR ceilings develop as early as 05Z and continue through late
morning at all sites before going VFR by midday/early afternoon
Thursday. Winds should pick back up out of the SSE on Thursday
afternoon and remain gusty at AUS, SAT, and SSF, but lighten up at
DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  76  96 /  30  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  93  76  96 /  30  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  96  76  98 /  20   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  91  74  93 /  30  20   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 105  80 108 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  91  75  94 /  30  20   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             76  99  74 102 /  10   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  75  97 /  20  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  92  77  94 /  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  76  99 /  10   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  98  77 100 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Dimmit-Frio-
Maverick-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...MMM