087
FXUS64 KEWX 041710
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Dangerous heat establishes across South-Central Texas during the
short term period as 500 mb heights slowly increase in response to
the building upper level ridging from northern Mexico through the
Desert Southwest. Additionally, the storm track with regards to any
disturbances and convective complexes should primarily concentrate
southeastward from the TX/OK panhandles to near the Red River and
into Louisiana. This should keep rain chances minimal locally. The
only fly in the ointment could be any stronger outflow/cold pools
advancing southward away from that storm track corridor. While of
very low confidence, as seen over the past week or so regarding the
CAM guidance, there are a couple of HREF members showing outflow
reaching our region sometime into and/or on Wednesday. This would
require some adjustments of the temperatures and rain chances into
or through Wednesday, if that scenario plays out.

The afternoon highs both today and Wednesday are forecast to range
from the mid to upper 90s into the 100 to 108 degree range in our
western most counties. Daily record highs will be possible today
across San Antonio and is more likely at Del Rio. NBM indicates
nearly a 50% chance of exceeding the record at KSAT while KDRT is
nearly 85% chance of completing this same feat. KDRT also has a
chance of breaking the daily record on Wednesday despite a higher
record value by 3 degrees. The heat indices will trend even higher
as surface dew points through the afternoon likely range from the
mid to upper 60s to the mid 70s across the region. Heat indices
outside from the Hill Country will peak in the 108 to 113 degree
range. This will prompt a Heat Advisory across much of the region
between 1 to 8 PM CDT. Given at least still a low possibility of
outflow entering the region into/during Wednesday, I`ll elect to
maintain issuing the heat headlines one day at a time. Please
continue to practice and promote the heat precautions listed down
below.

Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a
closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting
and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the
shade and air conditioning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms passing northeast of our area
will send a boundary south into our area late Wednesday per numerous
CAMS. This may provide forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms
in the evening. Mid level ridging drifts over our area on Thursday
through Sunday. Subsidence underneath the ridge and the surface
boundary dissipating makes for increasing convective inhibition, and
in turn no rain chances. Heat indices remain elevated on Thursday
for possibly one more day of Heat Advisories during the current heat
wave. Then, dewpoints mix a little more efficiently on Friday
through Sunday keeping heat indices lower and below criteria.

All long range models now bring a "cold" front into our area on
Monday due to deepening upper level trough over the eastern states.
This is a new development. Frontal passages are a lot less common in
early June. For now, will trend toward the NBM and its slight chance
POPs. If model trends show consistency, later forecasts may have to
lower temperatures, possibly to near or perhaps slightly below
normal for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR conditions are in the process of lifting to VFR as ceilings
are beginning to scatter. Southerly flow is expected through the
period with speeds gusting to near 20-25 knots at times. Another
round of MVFR ceilings can be expected tonight with a lower chance of
IFR ceilings at SAT/SSF. Chances for convection are pretty low during
the period but non-zero. Will leave the TAFs rain free as chances are
too low to mention.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

         TUE        WED        THU        FRI
        06/04      06/05      06/06      06/07
------------------------------------------------
AUS    99/2011*  100/2018   103/2011   100/2022
ATT    99/2008   101/2011   103/2022*  103/2022
SAT   100/1916   102/2022   104/2022   104/2022
DRT   104/2013*  107/2022*  110/2022   108/1974

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  79  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  78  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  78  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            95  76  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          106  81 108  81 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  77  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport            101  78  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  77  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  79  94  75 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  79  97  75 /  10  10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport          101  80  99  77 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Maverick-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson-
Wilson-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...04
Aviation...29