933
FXUS64 KEWX 282049
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
349 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

* Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms through late tonight
  across most areas of South Central Texas. Greatest concerns are
  damaging straight line winds and large hail.

* Heavy rainfall expected with levels 1 and 2 out of 4 risk for
  flash flooding, especially for our northern and northeastern most
  counties.

* Dangerous heat lingers this afternoon with peak heat indices as
  high as 110 degrees across our southern most areas.

An outflow boundary moved across the Hill Country, the I-35 corridor
and over parts of the coastal plains. This outflow generated strong
wind gusts and helped with the development of isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms. We issued earlier a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
for the Hill Country and some of the eastern far counties. We were
able to cancel the watch earlier this afternoon for those counties.
However, storms started to go up across the San Angelo CWA and that
prompted SPC to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Val Verde
County until 9 PM. Honestly, hires models have a somewhat idea about
the convective outlook for the rest of this afternoon into this
evening. With that said, expect storms to continue developing ahead
of the dry-line and a cold front over central Texas slowly pushing
to the southwest. Expect storms to grow in scale and become strong
to severe through late tonight as they push to the southeast as they
follow the southeast steering flow. If these storms hold through
late tonight, they will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts
of 60+ mph, and large to very large hail. Can`t rule out an isolated
tornado or two. Also, some of these strong to severe thunderstorms
could produce heavy downpours that may result in locally minor flash
flooding. The storms will move to the east overnight with things
drying out to the west. However, the wet pattern continues into
Wednesday mainly across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and the
coastal plains.

Circling back to the third bullet point above, heat index values are
likely to reach the 108 to 110 mark for a few hours this afternoon
where the Heat Advisory is taking place. However, the outflow
boundary mentioned above brought cooler temperatures and dew points
across the local area and it is expected to continue to push to the
southwest into the western part of the coastal plains and the Rio
Grande Plains. We may be able to cancel the Heat Advisory earlier if
the outflow trend continues to bring a "cooler and less moist"
airmass to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Daily low to medium thunderstorm chances and near normal
temperatures are in the forecast through the weekend. The
thunderstorm chances are attributed to a combination of factors,
including a stationary front across north Texas, a dryline across
west Texas, any outflow boundaries that develop from convection each
day, and weak impulses/disturbances in the mid/upper level flow.
While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the
exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due number
of factors at play and the nuances of each one. Regardless, daily
isolated to scattered convection across the state will help keep
temperatures at bay through the weekend due to increased cloud cover
and rain cooled air. Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the
higher upper level heights into the beginning of next week, which
will likely bring a slight warming trend and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are being observed across all area sites and this
trend is forecast to remain through early this evening. Then,
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across the
northeast part of Mexico and over central Texas this evening into the
overnight. These storms are expected to move eastward as a broken
line of storms affecting the I-35 terminals. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe and capable of producing strong to damaging
winds, large hail and heavy downpours that could reduced
visibilities down to 3 miles or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  89  74  89 /  60  40  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  88  73  89 /  60  40  30  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  92  74  93 /  60  40  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            69  85  71  87 /  70  40  30  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  99  79 100 /  50  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  86  71  87 /  60  40  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             71  93  74  94 /  60  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  90  72  91 /  60  40  30  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  89  74  88 /  40  60  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  91  75  92 /  60  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           73  93  76  94 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-De Witt-
Dimmit-Frio-Gonzales-Karnes-Lavaca-Maverick-Wilson-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...17