487
FXUS64 KEWX 280541
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1241 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The showers and thunderstorms noted earlier well south of Eagle Pass
continue to move to the southeast away from our area. We have let
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336 for the remaining counties expire.
Expect no convective development overnight due to lack of forcing.

CAMS continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday
afternoon, then likely forming into one or more clusters and moving
across our area Tuesday evening into night. Forecast soundings show
enhanced potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy
rains. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and minor
flooding are the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Latest visible satellite images are showing a scattered to broken
low level cloud deck across the coastal plains while the rest of
South Central Texas enjoys mostly sunny skies. There are a few high
clouds arriving from the west associated with elevated moisture and
from the top of the storms that are already ongoing across the
Serranias del Burro Mountains. This activity out west may take
several hours to make it into parts of the Rio Grande later this
afternoon and early evening. In the meantime, temperatures continue
to climb into the 90s and ranging from 100 to 101 degrees along the
Rio Grande as of 130 PM. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning
continues in effect for most of South Central Texas through 8 PM
this evening. Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values of
110 to 114 are forecast for the I-35 corridor and from 114 to 117
across the coastal plains through early this evening.

Circling back to the storms mentioned above, some of them could
make into the Rio Grande later this afternoon and early evening as
they develop ahead of the dry-line. Another area of convective
initiation is expected ahead of a cold front over central Texas.
Some of these storms could be developing over parts of the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late this afternoon through this
evening. If they do manage to develop, the main threats will be
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity should be over by
midnight tonight.

Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday as clouds linger
around for most of the day and there are better chances for showers
and storms. Tuesday`s highs are forecast to range from the low to
mid 90s across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor to upper 90s and
up to 101 for the coastal plains and along the Rio Grande. Tuesday`s
weather setup brings the potential for strong to severe storms
across most areas of South Central Texas as storms develop ahead of
the dry-line and a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over central
Texas. It is possible that a linear MCS develops over the San Angelo
CWA and then pushes into the Rio Grande/southern Edwards
Plateau/Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor late afternoon
continuing into the evening. The main threats are likely to be
damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and greater and large to very hail.
The storm system weakens as it moves into the coastal plains and
then over the middle Texas coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The beginning of the long term period will see temperatures closer
to normal values along with daily low to medium chances for
thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chances can be largely attributed to
a stationary front across the northern portion of the state through
the remainder of the work week and occasional upper level
disturbances riding over the ridge which will remain centered over
Mexico. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for
rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain
due to the subtle and fairly broad forcing. Regardless, daily
isolated to scattered convection will help keep temperatures at bay
through the week due to increased cloud cover and rain cooled air.
Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the higher upper level
heights over the coming weekend, which will likely bring a slight
warming trend and drier conditions heading into the beginning of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

MVFR flight conditions generally prevails overnight through Tuesday
morning at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). This continues
to include some reduced visibility from haze or some combination of
haze and patchy fog. KDRT likely remains VFR into and through much
of Tuesday. Convective potential returns and increases from late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as convection likely arrives in
the form of a large complex or individual clusters out of north and
west Texas. The confidence remains low regarding the exact timing,
placement, and intensity of activity as it advances through the
area. However, there is potential for storms to become severe with
large hail, and strong damaging winds. The southeasterly winds that
occur outside of any convective influences are to diminish overnight
before becoming breezy again through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  72  88  73 /  20  60  40  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  72  88  72 /  20  50  40  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  74  91  73 /  20  50  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            92  69  85  71 /  30  60  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  76  98  78 /  30  30  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  69  86  71 /  20  60  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             97  72  93  73 /  20  50  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  72  90  72 /  20  50  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  74  88  73 /  20  50  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  74  91  75 /  20  60  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           98  75  93  76 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady