970
FXUS64 KEWX 181734
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Low clouds are developing across the southern Edwards Plateau and
parts of the Rio Grande Plains. Most of the hires models suggest for
this pattern to continue overnight through the middle of the
morning. Clouds lift and scatter out for partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper
90s elsewhere. No rain expected throughout the day as upper ridging
dominates the local area.

The dry weather conditions continue this evening and into the
overnight period. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the
lower 70s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to
mid and upper 70s across the rest of the local area. Low clouds
return overnight across most locations for mostly cloudy skies and
stay throughout the morning hours.

By noon on Thursday, partly cloudy skies are forecast to dominate
the local area with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country
and southern Edwards Plateau while the rest of the local area gets
into the mid to upper 90s. Rain is not expected across South Central
Texas for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper level ridge over most of Texas late this week gradually shifts
to the south this weekend with the axis from the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast to over far southern Texas into Mexico early next week.
A series of upper level troughs move out over the Plains and Central
states this weekend into early next week with their dynamics passing
north of our area. There remains some uncertainty with respect to
the lower levels. Most recent models/ensembles have kept any frontal
boundaries north of our area while an occasional operational run
have it briefly move into our area. Have favored the consensus and
keep it north of our area. As a result, with no forcing mechanisms,
rain is not forecast. The exception being Sunday afternoon when a
surface boundary may approach our area bringing a few showers to
parts of the Edwards Plateau. Although no fronts are expected, the
lower level thermal ridge slowly weakens this weekend into early
next week leading to a slight "cool" down. However, temperatures
remain above normal through the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Our late summer pattern of overnight low clouds and afternoon
scattered cumulus will continue for the next TAF period. VFR
conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight and last through the late morning
Thursday. Winds will be from the southeast generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  98  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  98  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...05