409
FXUS64 KEWX 130647 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
147 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level shortwave trough
moving across southeast TX and generating isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms from our Coastal Plains to the Hill
Country. Convection will likely continue through the afternoon while
the upper shortwave moves away from the region. Tonight the
subtropical ridge will build over TX from the west. This will bring
an end to the unsettled pattern we`ve been experiencing over the
last few days. Dry weather will settle over the region for tonight
through Thursday night. Low temperatures tonight and thursday night
will be about the same as we`ve had during the early part of the
week. Highs Thursday will be warmer with less cloud cover and more
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected through
the first half of the long term period. Lower to middle 90s will be
most common over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor on Friday, with
highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s this weekend in the same
areas. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s outside of
the Rio Grande Plains where it will continue to top out in the 100-
105 range through the weekend.

Our rain chances will remain cut off this weekend as weak ridging
sets up shop over the region, but it will be short-lived as it
migrates eastward and settles over the southeastern CONUS early next
week. This should open the door for slightly cooler afternoons, but
mornings will be downright muggy as surface moisture return increases
as an area of disturbed weather develops over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. As of this writing, NHC gives it a low chance (30%) of
developing in the next 7 days, with the primary impact from the
system likely being heavy rainfall. The latest 8-14 U.S. Hazards
Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center places the eastern half of
our CWA within a Slight Risk for heavy precip, while the Coastal
Plains are within a Moderate Risk for heavy precip (greater than 4 in
10 chance of seeing heavy rains that could result in flooding) June
20-23. As far as medium range guidance goes, both the GFS and ECMWF
develop a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche late
this weekend into early next week, with the ECMWF on board with the
best chance of tropical development. The latest 12Z members are
bullish on this system developing into a weak tropical storm and
moving inland over northern Mexico. If this were to occur, we could
reap the benefits over the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains in
terms of beneficial rainfall. For now, we will continue to monitor
trends, and as always, stick to reliable sources of information on
the tropics like the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Some low cloud development is noted on satellite imagery this
morning, but is rather patchy in coverage. We did opt to include some
TEMPO groups for MVFR cigs for a few hours around sunrise given
satellite trends and recent model guidance. We may have to start
MVFR cigs a little earlier pending satellite and observational
trends. Out west at DRT, we kept the forecast VFR, but did add a
mention of SCT low clouds this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  81 103  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  74  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Platt