535
FXUS64 KEWX 121200 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The latest radar data shows scattered convection across the southern
Edwards Plateau along with some isolated convection farther south
across the Rio Grande plains. Radar trends and hi-res models
generally show the southern Edwards Plateau will be favored for
convection through most of the early morning hours. The focus is
then expected to shift into portions of the Hill Country and nearby
I-35 corridor (mainly near and north of Austin) for the afternoon
hours. Severe storms are not anticipated today, but gusty winds,
small hail, occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy rainfall
will be possible with the stronger storms. With the loss of daytime
heating, a decrease in precipitation chances will occur. We will
hang on to some low chances for showers and storms across the
coastal plains through mid-evening, then go with a dry forecast for
the remainder of tonight into Thursday. Highs today will range from
the upper 80s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande.
Highs will warm a few degrees on Thursday compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

On Friday into Saturday, the Subtropical Ridge from northern Mexico
to the southeastern states and a lower level thermal ridge across
our area bring a seasonally hot and humid airmass. Subsidence
underneath the Ridge will inhibit shower and thunderstorm
development.

A shortwave lifting to the northeast over the Plains this weekend
will create a weakness in the Ridge over Texas that continues next
week. Moisture deepens especially over eastern parts of our area.
The seabreeze will become active by Sunday and each day through at
least mid week. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms return to
near the Coastal Plains on Sunday, then farther west to the I-35
corridor on Monday and Tuesday. There is a potential for some
enhancement of rainfall due to tropical or subtropical features by
the middle of next week. However, the development of these features
and subsequent movement is highly uncertain at this time. Seasonal
temperatures continue next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Convection is still expected to expand in coverage today and we will
continue to mention the PROB30 groups for the I-35 sites. Some brief
MVFR clouds are also possible for a few more hours this morning.
Winds will generally remain from the northeast to east along I-35,
with east to southeast at DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  75  95  75 /  40  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  73  94  72 /  40  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  73  96  73 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  73  92  72 /  40   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  81 104  81 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  73  93  72 /  50   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  98  74 /  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  73  95  72 /  40  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  94  73 /  40  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  76  95  75 /  30  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  76  98  76 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Platt