Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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149 FXUS64 KEWX 070545 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Some low clouds have held on in the southwestern CWA with mostly clear skies across the remainder of the area. Temperatures are in the upper 80s and low 90s with highs today several degrees higher. Dewpoints are slightly lower and with clouds hanging on in the southwest, current thinking is still no need for a Heat Advisory today. There are some thunderstorms well west of the Rio Grande, but not expecting these to get anywhere close to the CWA. For tonight, the slightly drier air will lead to lows in the lower 70s in the east, but moisture and low clouds will lead to continued to upper 70s to near 82 degrees in the Rio Grande Counties. Tomorrow will be dry with highs back in the middle 90s to 104 degrees out west. Dewpoints will stay below critical values and heat indices will be less than advisory levels once again. Southeast surface winds are pretty light today, but should be slightly higher tomorrow. Tomorrow night skies should be mostly clear for all areas with lows in the lower to middle 70s for most of the area. This could finally end bring sub 80 degree temperatures to Del Rio. Otherwise, no major concerns are expected during the short-term period of the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 By Saturday we will start to see some slight pattern shifts to where the upper level ridge currently centered over the NM/TX area will move SE across TX and into the northern gulf by late in the weekend. This will setup some storm activity to likely form over OK and N Texas along a weak frontal boundary. This boundary is forecast to stall to our north in North or Central Texas as depicted in the models as well as on WPCs surface forecast maps. This time of year, outflow boundaries can generate enough lift for storms and aid to reinforce these early June weak cold fronts. So as long as this feature is near the northern/western areas of the CWA on Monday...will keep the slight chances of POP in the forecast during the day on Monday. By the middle of next week, the upper ridge will re-establish over northern Mexico into the front range of the Rockies...setting up some more NW flow across the Southern Plains. While this might keep N TX and OK active again with storms like the past few weeks...there doesnt appear to be much in the way of rain triggers for us except if we get lucky with some outflow boundaries. Rest of the forecast will be zero pop and temps mainly in the 90s...low 100s along the Rio Grande as the ridge axis shifts to more of a SW to NE origin over the state, limiting our influence from any NW flow events. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF through the forecast period. A light and variable and at times easterly wind flow is forecast to dominate overnight through Friday morning. Low clouds are forecast to develop overnight across the Rio Grande and affect KDRT by day break through the middle of the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KDRT on Friday afternoon and evening. Wind speeds pick up (8 to 12 knots and wind gusts up to 20 knots) especially across the Rio Grande mid to late afternoon into the evening as a surface trough moves across west Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 100 71 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 101 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...17