Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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505 FXUS64 KEWX 120806 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 306 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The latest radar data shows scattered convection across the southern Edwards Plateau along with some isolated convection farther south across the Rio Grande plains. Radar trends and hi-res models generally show the southern Edwards Plateau will be favored for convection through most of the early morning hours. The focus is then expected to shift into portions of the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor (mainly near and north of Austin) for the afternoon hours. Severe storms are not anticipated today, but gusty winds, small hail, occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms. With the loss of daytime heating, a decrease in precipitation chances will occur. We will hang on to some low chances for showers and storms across the coastal plains through mid-evening, then go with a dry forecast for the remainder of tonight into Thursday. Highs today will range from the upper 80s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande. Highs will warm a few degrees on Thursday compared to today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 On Friday into Saturday, the Subtropical Ridge from northern Mexico to the southeastern states and a lower level thermal ridge across our area bring a seasonally hot and humid airmass. Subsidence underneath the Ridge will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development. A shortwave lifting to the northeast over the Plains this weekend will create a weakness in the Ridge over Texas that continues next week. Moisture deepens especially over eastern parts of our area. The seabreeze will become active by Sunday and each day through at least mid week. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms return to near the Coastal Plains on Sunday, then farther west to the I-35 corridor on Monday and Tuesday. There is a potential for some enhancement of rainfall due to tropical or subtropical features by the middle of next week. However, the development of these features and subsequent movement is highly uncertain at this time. Seasonal temperatures continue next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Some low cloud development as well as isolated convection is noted on early morning satellite imagery. We will continue to mention some TEMPO groups for MVFR clouds for all sites this morning, mainly between 10-15Z. Hi-res models show the ongoing convection will gradually expand in coverage today and will mention VCSH for the I-35 sites as well as PROB30 for TSRA during the morning into early afternoon hours. Coverage of convection should be a little lower out west at DRT and will not mention in the forecast at this time. Winds generally remain fairly light through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 90 75 95 75 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 73 94 72 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 73 96 73 / 30 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 88 73 92 72 / 40 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 81 104 81 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 73 93 72 / 50 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 93 75 98 74 / 30 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 73 95 72 / 40 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 74 94 73 / 40 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 76 95 75 / 30 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 98 76 / 30 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...04 Aviation...Platt