031
FXUS64 KEWX 111840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Latest regional radar imagery shows a line of storms developing
along an outflow boundary extending southward from the tail end of a
morning complex of storms. The Hill Country and Southern Edwards
Plateau will be first in line for some strong to severe storms, with
SPC painting a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for the entire CWA this
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind looks to be the primary hazard
with some large hail also possible given the instability present.
However, with a rather warm and moist atmospheric profile, the
concern for hail is a bit lower than recent events. A 500mb
shortwave at the base of a passing upper level low to our north will
be the primary forcing mechanism along with the rich boundary layer
moisture and elevated instability. Expect storms to push through
from northwest to southeast and perhaps even turn more southerly
than usual as the shortwave disturbance swings through our region.
Yet another weak shortwave may push through from north to south on
Wednesday on the back side of the departing upper low, which may
support additional showers and storms, but at this time, severe
weather does not look to be a threat for our region. Temperatures
are expected to remain near the status quo, if not slightly cooler
outside of the Rio Grande Plains. Highs should top out in the upper
80s to mid 90s for most, with lower 100s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The subtropical ridge will build back across TX Thursday. Dry weather
will return, and a warming trend will begin. Models continue to show
temperatures a little cooler over the latter part of the week. Highs
will mostly be in the 90s with triple digits confined to the Rio
Grande region and southern I-35 Corridor. Afternoon dewpoint
temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s
through the weekend keeping heat indices below advisory criteria.
Monday a midlevel trough will approach the TX coast from the Gulf and
could produce some showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains
Monday and Tuesday afternoons. There will also be increase in
dewpoint temperatures raising heat index values. We could see heat
advisory levels across the Coastal Plains and southern I-35 Corridor
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A bit of a tricky forecast this package as storms may impact AUS,
SAT, and SSF, with confidence highest at AUS. Have opted for a TEMPO
group at AUS and PROB30s at SAT and SSF for -TSRA. Winds should
remain mostly light and variable today but may shift to a slightly
more easterly component by early evening. DRT should remain more
easterly to southeasterly through the period with VFR ceilings. MVFR
CIGs look like a good bet at AUS, but the possibility of some patchy
fog is not out of the question, so have hedged towards 5SM vis at AUS
and will reevaluate at the amendments and 00Z TAFS. With regard to
timing, storms should mainly move through between 00-06Z, but we
could see some development before that at AUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  91  74  95 /  40  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  91  73  93 /  40  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  74  96 /  30  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  87  73  92 /  40  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 101  81 103 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  88  72  92 /  30  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  93  74  97 /  30  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  90  73  94 /  40  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  89  74  93 /  30  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  92  76  96 /  40  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  93  77  97 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...05
Aviation...MMM