125
FXUS62 KFFC 121845
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

After some areas of low clouds and patchy fog early this morning,
skies have become partly cloudy with a combination of a cumulus
field and cirrus clouds. The cirrus clouds are associated with a
weak shortwave trough moving toward the area from the W. Early
afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 70s across the NE
mountains to the upper 80s to near 90 near and SE of Macon.

The aforementioned shortwave may squeeze out some isolated showers
across the extreme S later this afternoon and early this evening. A
few thunderstorms are not out of the question in the SW corner of
the County Warning Area. Low-level moisture may increase a bit
across the S tonight, but increased boundary layer mixing should
reduce the likelihood of thicker low clouds. High resolution models
are also producing a few showers over the mountains during the day
Thursday as the shortwave moves overhead. The remainder of the area
is expected to be dry.

Lows tonight will drop to near 60 in the NE mountains ranging to
near 70 across the S. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar
to today`s, although readings across the NW third of the area will
increase a bit under the influence of weak ridging behind the
shortwave. Thursday night`s lows will be similar to tonight`s as
well.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

No major changes made to the extended forecast. Broad and wide
mid/upper level ridging will dominate much of the long term.
Temperatures will continue to climb peaking Saturday, when highs
could potentually reach 100 degrees in portions of Central GA.
Models continue to struggle with moisture transport out of the Gulf
as they struggle to get a handle on the development of a gulf sfc
low. Recent trends are catching on to a weak sub-tropical shortwave
jet which helps to develop something over the Florida Panhandle
before sending it off into the Atlantic. NE flow associated with
this low could certainly dry us out more than expected as we go into
the weekend. PWATs seem to reflect this hanging near 1 to 1.5" in
both the GFS and ECMWF as well as the GEFS mean. This would put us
just below normal for this time of year. Dry air would mean both
reduced heat indices and PoPs. The NBM seems to reflect this by
keeping PoPs out of the area through early next week, though given
the uncertainty in moisture transport and incoming shortwave energy,
will likely bring low PoPs into Central GA through early next week.

Speaking of early next week, a building sub-tropical jetstreak over
Arkansas and the Mid-Mississippi valley will once again draw
moisture out of the Gulf and provide more robust PoPs across North
and Central GA. CAPE values will be conducive to our normal
diurnally driven pulse convection. Greater precipitation coverage
will help to moderate out temperatures, however this will likely be
traded for a classic "Southeast Sauna".

SM/01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Cumulus field may locally become broken briefly this afternoon with
cig heights around 6kft. However, dry air entrainment into the
shallow moist layer should keep these periods brief Also, some
patches of broken cirrus will move across the area into the evening
hours associated with an approaching shortwave trough. Mostly VFR
conditions are expected to continue. There may be more low-level
moisture across the SE portion of the area later tonight, but the
atmosphere may be a bit more mixed in the boundary layer. Later
shifts will monitor for possible increase in low clouds (mainly at
MCN). Winds will be light E-SE with some periods of near calm during
the night.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High for all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  90  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         70  91  71  96 /  10  10   0  10
Blairsville     62  84  63  88 /   0  20   0  10
Cartersville    68  92  68  95 /   0  10   0  10
Columbus        72  93  72  97 /  10  20   0  10
Gainesville     67  88  68  93 /   0  10   0  10
Macon           70  93  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
Rome            67  92  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
Peachtree City  69  91  69  96 /  10  10   0   0
Vidalia         71  92  70  95 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SEC