770
FXUS62 KFFC 092346
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
746 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024


...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pretty quiet, but very hot this afternoon. Some temps may top out
just shy of 100F in our SE counties. Morning sounding also showed
very warm mid level temps with nearly +12C at 700mb, which should be
more than enough inhibit any convection this afternoon and early
evening until we can get some mid level upward motion and/or CAA
aloft.

Near-term CAM guidance has started backing off on chances for MCS
development overnight, perhaps due to capping inversion which likely
extends west into central AL where few if any cumulus have developed
based on VIS imagery. Boundary over northern MS and AL remains well-
defined and plenty of moisture and instability to work with as
SBCAPE values 3000-5000 J/kg in place over central MS and western AL
at this time. Even if storms fire, they may remain west of the area
as the MCS propagates ESE toward the higher low-level theta-e
values. Have backed off a little on PoPs overnight but may need to
continue trending them lower unless something more definitive
develops upstream.

Monday, larger-scale boundary should slide SE during the day and
take sfc forcing and moisture out of the CWA by 00Z, however am
concerned this front may push slower than forecast. Will likely
tweak PoPs for tonight and Monday one more time before finalizing
the forecast.

Atlantic basin still indicates no tropical activity expected the
next 7 days.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some notable changes to the long term forecast are in store with
this forecast update as models continue to struggle to come into
agreement over the midweek system affecting the northern Gulf. This
forecast update has daily rain and thunderstorm chances shifting
further south than previous forecasts, relegating the best chances
for precipitation in the CWA across south central Georgia. With the
broad trough making its exit off the east coast, another shortwave
embedded within the mid-level flow will swing through Wednesday and
Thursday as weak surface cyclogenesis hugs the Gulf Coast. PoPs have
also dropped off with this southward shift, where slight chance to
low end chances for precipitation are now in play through the middle
of the work week. Additionally, PWATs have have moderated back to
1.5-2.0+" as the surface low likely stays further south of our area.
As the surface low begins to push northeast by the end of the week
as a ridge builds in from the west, the chance for rain and
thunderstorms will expand northward through the weekend. At this
time, no significant severe weather impacts with storms are
anticipated, though a few strong storms may be possible producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The primary concern through 18Z Monday will be the potential for
scattered thunderstorms in the region. The greatest storm coverage
is expected between 05Z and 12Z Monday. Impacts appear probable
(~40-60% chance) for the Atlanta area TAF sites. However
confidence in the timing and duration of any storms remains low.
The strongest storms could produce gusty winds. Scattered storms
may linger in central Georgia after 18Z Monday. Winds tonight will
generally be light (less than 6 kt), then northwest winds of 6 to
12 kts are expected after 15Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is low.
Low confidence in the timing and duration of any thunderstorms.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Moderate confidence in the ceiling and visibility forecasts.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  83  61  85 /  40  30  10   0
Atlanta         69  85  63  86 /  50  20  10   0
Blairsville     60  77  53  79 /  20  20  10   0
Cartersville    65  83  58  84 /  40  20  10   0
Columbus        73  90  67  90 /  20  40  10   0
Gainesville     67  82  60  84 /  30  20  10   0
Macon           72  89  66  90 /  30  30  20  10
Rome            66  85  59  85 /  30  10  10   0
Peachtree City  67  85  61  86 /  40  20  10   0
Vidalia         74  93  71  91 /  10  50  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Albright