002
FXUS62 KFFC 120529
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
129 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Mid level trof and dry northwest flow continues to swing through
the eastern and southeastern states. Remnant surface boundary now
aligned with the coastal zones the south and is the separator of a
very moist airmass to the south over the GOM and southern FL and
a much drier airmass to the north. Will see a very gradual
increase in mid and high level moisture through the short term
owing to some mid and high level clouds. Temps will be on a
gradual warming trend with no pops in the forecast through
Wednesday.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Warming trend to begin the extended range with mid level ridge
building in from the west on Thursday accompanied by a fairly dry
BL with 1000-500mb RH values less than 50%. Temps by Friday
should reach the upper 90s area wide however, given the dryness of
the airmass, including sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s don`t expect the heat indices to reach much above the max. By
Saturday 700mb and 500mb ridge is stacked overhead which should
make for the hottest day of the period. Dewpoints, for now, look
to remain in the lower 60s which will keep heat indices in the
low 100s and just below any heat product criteria. Regardless, it
does look to be the hottest day of the year thus far. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see a few 100`s for air temps out there however, a
limiting factor could be any mid or high level clouds from any
daytime storms. Some individual extended models hinting at a
little more mid level moisture and potentially a few scattered
storms Saturday, although NBM is still suggestive of less than 10%
pops and that`s what`s currently baked into the forecast.

By Sunday..ridge begins to dirty a little bit as it ever so
slightly shifts east and allows a small tap into the blob of
moisture sitting over the GOM and FL this week to surge north
resulting in higher pop values for Sunday and Monday. Models have
been hinting at this moisture surging north at some point but have
struggled with the timing thus confidence in this forecast for
Sunday over previous forecast remains unchanged and low. The ECMWF
is a little less bullish with the moisture getting into the core
of the ridge and maintains a slightly stronger ridge over the SE
states for Sunday/Monday...which would result in lower pop chances
by Sunday and Monday. For now sticking with model blend, NBM,
which introduces 20-30 pops for Sunday and 30-40 pops for Monday
given the potential for an increase in moisture from the tropics.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR through the period. A wind shift to the east side is expected
shortly after 06Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  91  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
Atlanta         70  92  71  98 /   0  10   0   0
Blairsville     61  85  63  90 /   0  10   0  10
Cartersville    66  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        71  94  71  98 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     67  89  68  94 /   0  10   0   0
Macon           69  93  68  98 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            65  93  68  97 /   0  10   0   0
Peachtree City  67  92  68  98 /   0  10   0   0
Vidalia         70  92  70  96 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...NListemaa