Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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146 FXUS62 KFFC 071728 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Quiet weather expected for the short term period. A weak front will continue to move south across the CWA today. Behind the front, dewpoints are expected to drop into the lower to middle 50s (!) across most locales. The dewpoints/rh values will begin to creep upwards on Saturday, but will still be very pleasant for this time of year. Temperatures right around normal are anticipated. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Conditions will be mostly dry to start the long term outlook on Sunday morning. Weak northwest flow and a messy series of shortwaves may be able to initiate a few showers, and potentially even a few rumbles of thunder, in far north GA. The main feature of interest will be the progression of a digging trough and surge of tropical moisture between Monday and Wednesday. Current model consistency remains low with this interaction. Let`s start by looking at the model similarities. To start, most models are consistent with a corridor of moisture along a stationary front stretching from Southern MO across the TN valley. PWATs will be 1.5 to 2.0 inches across this entire region. Models also agree that a trough will begin to develop late Sunday through Monday. Now to get into the more complicated bits, models significantly disagree with the evolution of a digging trough. The difference appears to be partly driven by surging tropical moisture from the south from a weak Gulf low slowly drifting northward. This intensifies the temperature gradient and allows for significantly stronger cyclogenesis across the southern midwest and a more progressive upper level trough. The stronger associated cold front would be enough to support stormy frontal passage by Late Tuesday. This solution is currently only represented in the GFS and seems the most suspect given GFS tropical tendencies. As such the more likely scenario will see the trough dig to the west and progress much slower across the CONUS. A much weaker cold front combined with the messy shortwaves will still be enough to initiate some thunderstorms through early next week, especially when considering diurnal trends and peak CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg. As of right now the secondary solution is too far out for models to resolve when the trough itself will come through. Overall, the risk of severe weather should remain low, however a few stronger storms may be possible under either scenario. Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Conditions will likely be steamy given the ample moisture. Make sure to stay cool. SM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 NW winds at 8-10kts could gust as high as 19kts today. Winds will shift to the E side after 12Z. FEW040 will remain for the afternoon, but conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 60 89 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 63 89 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 53 83 62 83 / 0 10 10 40 Cartersville 56 89 63 91 / 0 10 0 20 Columbus 65 93 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 86 67 90 / 0 10 0 20 Macon 59 92 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 56 90 62 92 / 0 10 10 30 Peachtree City 57 90 63 94 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 66 93 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...Vaughn