889
FXUS62 KFFC 121755
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Old frontal boundary remains stationary across the panhandle of
Florida. A couple of waves of low pressure are progged to move east
along the boundary through the short term period. Some isolated pops
are possible in far SE GA Thursday afternoon (closest to the
boundary/lows), but for most areas the forecast will remain dry.
Temps slightly above normal through the period.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Broad and wide mid/upper level ridging will dominate much of the
long term. Temperatures will continue to climb through Saturday, when
highs could potentually reach 100 degrees in portions of Central GA.
Models continue to struggle with moisture transport out of the Gulf
as they struggle to get a handle on the development of a gulf sfc
low. Recent trends are catching on a weak sub-tropical jet shortwave
which helps to develop something over the Florida Panhandle before
sending it off into the Atlantic. NE flow associated with this low
could certainly dry us out more than expected as we go into the
weekend. PWATs seem to reflect this hanging near 1 to 1.5" in both
the GFS and ECMWF as well as the GEFS mean. This would put us just
below normal for this time of year. Dry air would mean both reduced
heat indices and PoPs. The NBM seems to reflect this by keeping PoPs
out of the area through early next week, though given the uncertainty
in moisture transport and incoming shortwave energy, will likely
bring low PoPs into Central GA through early next week.

Speaking of early next week, a building sub-tropical jetstreak over
Arkansas and the Mid-Mississippi valley will once again draw moisture
out of the Gulf and provide more robust PoPs across North and
Central GA. CAPE values will be conducive to our normal diurnally
driven pulse convection. Greater precipitation coverage will help to
moderate out temperatures, however this will likely be traded for a
classic "Southeast Sauna".

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Cumulus field may locally become broken briefly this afternoon with
cig heights around 6kft. However, dry air entrainment into the
shallow moist layer should keep these periods brief Also, some
patches of broken cirrus will move across the area into the evening
hours associated with an approaching shortwave trough. Mostly VFR
conditions are expected to continue. There may be more low-level
moisture across the SE portion of the area later tonight, but the
atmosphere may be a bit more mixed in the boundary layer. Later
shifts will monitor for possible increase in low clouds (mainly at
MCN). Winds will be light E-SE with some periods of near calm during
the night.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High for all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  90  67  94 /   0  10   0  10
Atlanta         70  91  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
Blairsville     63  84  63  88 /   0  10   0  10
Cartersville    67  92  68  95 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        72  93  72  97 /  10  10   0  10
Gainesville     67  89  68  93 /   0  10   0  10
Macon           70  93  68  96 /  10  10   0  10
Rome            67  93  69  97 /   0  10   0  10
Peachtree City  68  92  69  96 /   0  10   0  10
Vidalia         71  92  70  95 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...SEC