Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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770 FXUS62 KFFC 092346 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Pretty quiet, but very hot this afternoon. Some temps may top out just shy of 100F in our SE counties. Morning sounding also showed very warm mid level temps with nearly +12C at 700mb, which should be more than enough inhibit any convection this afternoon and early evening until we can get some mid level upward motion and/or CAA aloft. Near-term CAM guidance has started backing off on chances for MCS development overnight, perhaps due to capping inversion which likely extends west into central AL where few if any cumulus have developed based on VIS imagery. Boundary over northern MS and AL remains well- defined and plenty of moisture and instability to work with as SBCAPE values 3000-5000 J/kg in place over central MS and western AL at this time. Even if storms fire, they may remain west of the area as the MCS propagates ESE toward the higher low-level theta-e values. Have backed off a little on PoPs overnight but may need to continue trending them lower unless something more definitive develops upstream. Monday, larger-scale boundary should slide SE during the day and take sfc forcing and moisture out of the CWA by 00Z, however am concerned this front may push slower than forecast. Will likely tweak PoPs for tonight and Monday one more time before finalizing the forecast. Atlantic basin still indicates no tropical activity expected the next 7 days. SNELSON && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Some notable changes to the long term forecast are in store with this forecast update as models continue to struggle to come into agreement over the midweek system affecting the northern Gulf. This forecast update has daily rain and thunderstorm chances shifting further south than previous forecasts, relegating the best chances for precipitation in the CWA across south central Georgia. With the broad trough making its exit off the east coast, another shortwave embedded within the mid-level flow will swing through Wednesday and Thursday as weak surface cyclogenesis hugs the Gulf Coast. PoPs have also dropped off with this southward shift, where slight chance to low end chances for precipitation are now in play through the middle of the work week. Additionally, PWATs have have moderated back to 1.5-2.0+" as the surface low likely stays further south of our area. As the surface low begins to push northeast by the end of the week as a ridge builds in from the west, the chance for rain and thunderstorms will expand northward through the weekend. At this time, no significant severe weather impacts with storms are anticipated, though a few strong storms may be possible producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall. KAL && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The primary concern through 18Z Monday will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms in the region. The greatest storm coverage is expected between 05Z and 12Z Monday. Impacts appear probable (~40-60% chance) for the Atlanta area TAF sites. However confidence in the timing and duration of any storms remains low. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds. Scattered storms may linger in central Georgia after 18Z Monday. Winds tonight will generally be light (less than 6 kt), then northwest winds of 6 to 12 kts are expected after 15Z Monday. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is low. Low confidence in the timing and duration of any thunderstorms. High confidence in the wind forecast. Moderate confidence in the ceiling and visibility forecasts. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 83 61 85 / 40 30 10 0 Atlanta 69 85 63 86 / 50 20 10 0 Blairsville 60 77 53 79 / 20 20 10 0 Cartersville 65 83 58 84 / 40 20 10 0 Columbus 73 90 67 90 / 20 40 10 0 Gainesville 67 82 60 84 / 30 20 10 0 Macon 72 89 66 90 / 30 30 20 10 Rome 66 85 59 85 / 30 10 10 0 Peachtree City 67 85 61 86 / 40 20 10 0 Vidalia 74 93 71 91 / 10 50 50 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....KAL AVIATION...Albright