Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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455 FXUS62 KFFC 071047 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 647 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Quiet weather expected for the short term period. A weak front will continue to move south across the CWA today. Behind the front, dewpoints are expected to drop into the lower to middle 50s (!) across most locales. The dewpoints/rh values will begin to creep upwards on Saturday, but will still be very pleasant for this time of year. Temperatures right around normal are anticipated. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Conditions will be mostly dry to start the long term outlook on Sunday morning. Weak northwest flow and a messy series of shortwaves may be able to initiate a few showers, and potentially even a few rumbles of thunder, in far north GA. The main feature of interest will be the progression of a digging trough and surge of tropical moisture between Monday and Wednesday. Current model consistency remains low with this interaction. Let`s start by looking at the model similarities. To start, most models are consistent with a corridor of moisture along a stationary front stretching from Southern MO across the TN valley. PWATs will be 1.5 to 2.0 inches across this entire region. Models also agree that a trough will begin to develop late Sunday through Monday. Now to get into the more complicated bits, models significantly disagree with the evolution of a digging trough. The difference appears to be partly driven by surging tropical moisture from the south from a weak Gulf low slowly drifting northward. This intensifies the temperature gradient and allows for significantly stronger cyclogenesis across the southern midwest and a more progressive upper level trough. The stronger associated cold front would be enough to support stormy frontal passage by Late Tuesday. This solution is currently only represented in the GFS and seems the most suspect given GFS tropical tendencies. As such the more likely scenario will see the trough dig to the west and progress much slower across the CONUS. A much weaker cold front combined with the messy shortwaves will still be enough to initiate some thunderstorms through early next week, especially when considering diurnal trends and peak CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg. As of right now the secondary solution is too far out for models to resolve when the trough itself will come through. Overall, the risk of severe weather should remain low, however a few stronger storms may be possible under either scenario. Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Conditions will likely be steamy given the ample moisture. Make sure to stay cool. SM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR through the period. Winds will remain on the west side for much of the TAF, but try to go around to the east side around 12Z tomorrow. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 60 88 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 63 89 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 55 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 30 Cartersville 57 88 65 91 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 64 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 60 85 67 90 / 0 0 0 20 Macon 63 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 10 Rome 59 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 30 Peachtree City 60 90 65 94 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 67 93 69 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...NListemaa