412
FXUS62 KFFC 111810
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
210 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Mid level trof and dry northwest flow continues
to swing through the eastern and southeastern states.
Remnant surface boundary now aligned with the coastal zones the
south and is the separator of a very moist airmass to the south
over the GOM and southern FL and a much drier airmass to the
north. Will see a very gradual increase in mid and high level
moisture through the short term owing to some mid and high level
clouds. Temps will be on a gradual warming trend with no pops in
the forecast through Wednesday.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Warming trend to begin the extended range with mid level ridge
building in from the west on Thursday accompanied by a fairly dry
BL with 1000-500mb RH values less than 50%. Temps by Friday
should reach the upper 90s area wide however, given the dryness of
the airmass, including sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s don`t expect the heat indices to reach much above the max. By
Saturday 700mb and 500mb ridge is stacked overhead which should
make for the hottest day of the period. Dewpoints, for now, look
to remain in the lower 60s which will keep heat indices in the
low 100s and just below any heat product criteria. Regardless, it
does look to be the hottest day of the year thus far. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see a few 100`s for air temps out there however, a
limiting factor could be any mid or high level clouds from any
daytime storms. Some individual extended models hinting at a
little more mid level moisture and potentially a few scattered
storms Saturday, although NBM is still suggestive of less than 10%
pops and that`s what`s currently baked into the forecast.


By Sunday..ridge begins to dirty a little bit as it ever so
slightly shifts east and allows a small tap into the blob of
moisture sitting over the GOM and FLA this week to surge north resulting
in higher pop values for Sunday and Monday. Models have been
hinting at this moisture surging north at some point but have
struggled with the timing thus confidence in this forecast for
Sunday over previous forecast remains unchanged and low. The ECMWF
is a little less bullish with the moisture getting into the core
of the ridge and maintains a slightly stronger ridge over the SE
states for Sunday/Monday...which would result in lower pop
chances by Sunday and Monday. For now sticking with model blend,
NBM, which introduces 20-30 pops for Sunday and 30-40 pops for
Monday given the potential for an increase in moisture from the
tropics.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wind shift to the east still expected overnight tonight.
Winds could go calm before transitioning over to the east side
near daybreak but will keep the 05z shift in the ATL for now
as it appears to be a pivot point from N to NNE.  Winds overall
will be very light after sunset today...5kts or less at all sites.
Moisture increases at 250 after 06z per cross sections and at 010
late AM on Wednesday. Expect mid and high cloud cover to impact
all taf sites during the day tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  88  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         65  89  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     57  82  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    58  89  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        66  92  71  94 /   0  10   0  10
Gainesville     63  87  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           65  92  69  93 /   0  10   0  10
Rome            58  90  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  62  90  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
Vidalia         70  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30