491
FXUS62 KFFC 220550
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A quiet weather pattern will prevail through the short term. High
pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to
suppress any appreciable precipitation chances through Wednesday.
The only exception would be an isolated orographically induced
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon in the mountains of far
northeast Georgia, but the vast majority of us will remain dry.

Temperatures Wednesday will continue our gradual warming trend
with highs creeping up a degree or two above today, reaching the
mid-to-upper 80s areawide outside of the mountains.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft will start off the long-term
period on Thursday. Perturbations in the flow over the TN Valley
will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
and Friday, mainly across north Georgia. The SREF is depicting
virtually a 100% chance for SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg and a 60%
chance or greater for CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, and with 30+ kts
of surface-to-500mb bulk shear, scattered convection looks likely
both days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of
the mountains on Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 60s.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will build in this weekend through Monday
with continued perturbations in the flow. An influx of moisture --
characterized by PWAT climbing to around 1.5" per ensemble
guidance -- and ample instability will support area-wide PoPs,
with the greatest PoPs (45% to 65%) across north Georgia each day.
SPC has a Day 6 (Sunday) 15% risk for severe weather across a
portion of the OH and TN Valleys (just northwest of Georgia) given
the progged proximity of a 500mb speed max along with ample
progged instability. Across portions of north Georgia on Sunday,
the GEFS has a 20% to 30% chance for CAPE greater than 500 J/kg
and bulk shear greater than 40 kts, so some strong to severe
storms are possible. Highs this weekend and Monday will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions throughout TAF cycle. FEW/SCT cumulus field
developing after 15Z before becoming FEW/SCT 250 after sunset.
Light SE winds will become more S/SW after sunrise at 5KT or
less, occasionally calm to variable at times.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  88  67  89 /   0  20  10  20
Atlanta         69  88  68  89 /   0  10  10  20
Blairsville     62  81  62  82 /  10  40  20  40
Cartersville    67  88  66  88 /   0  20  10  30
Columbus        69  90  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     67  86  68  87 /   0  20  10  30
Macon           67  90  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            67  88  66  88 /  10  20  10  30
Peachtree City  67  88  67  89 /   0  10   0  20
Vidalia         68  91  70  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...KAL