Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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890 FXUS63 KFGF 270437 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1137 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and weak thunderstorms tonight into Monday. - Another round of rain late week with a 50% chance for more than 0.50 inches. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Showers with some embedded thunderstorms continue to push into our eastern ND counties. Other than a few lightning strikes and some brief downpours under the heavier cells, the activity looks low impact and made only some minor changes to what we had going. UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A few showers starting to enter the far western counties, with some thunderstorms further west near the Missouri river that will be coming in later tonight. Tweaked POPs a bit for current radar trends, but no major changes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A few subtle ripples in the mid and low level water vapor imagery can be noted through Montana and North Dakota with a more prominent wave back in western North Dakota providing the primary forcing the scattered showers currently in the central part of the state. Another deeper wave can be noted in north central Montana which will move off to the south of our area overnight with a cold front trailing later in the day from the north associated with an upper low in Ontario. The combination of these waves and diurnal heating this afternoon should be enough to sustain the showers with the movement of the waves. Currently looking like everyone will see another 0.10-0.20 inches though pockets as high as 0.50 will be possible with heavier cells and any embedded thunderstorms. Unanimous agreement among models on ridging in the northern plains for the mid week behind tomorrows cold front helping us dry out for a few days, which will be much needed and help all this excess water finally soak in and move through the river basins. A few smaller tributaries have begun to crest at minor to near moderate flood levels though a slowdown in the main wave should help limit river rises as the water moves upstream through the main stem of the Red River. The drier pattern will also allow us to be a bit warmer than recent with highs in the 60s and 70s beyond Tuesday. Though inevitably another broad trough moves into the Pacific Northwest reaching the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. 48 hour probs for more than 0.50 inches land around 50 percent though depending on the exact track of the low thunderstorm activity would be expected which would more than likely bump these probs up. Chances for more than 1 inch on a widespread scale are still below 20 percent. Both CSU ML and CWASP highlight areas at least near us to the point we want to at least mention the possibility of some stronger storms late week though there is enough uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern to simply leave it at that. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions currently with showers entering our ND forecast area. At this point, it seems that thunderstorm activity will stay south of the TAF sites. Showers will push from west to east through the overnight into the early morning hours. A cold front pushing down into the region will shift winds to the northwest and brings some MVFR ceilings to the region through the morning and into portions of the afternoon hours before improving late in the period. There will be a chance for showers into the day on Monday but confidence not high enough to include in the TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...JR