Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
468 FXUS63 KFGF 252345 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect patchy frost along the Canadian border tonight as temperatures dip to around 35 degrees - The active pattern continues with chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Showers continue to remain well south of our west central MN counties, so lowered POPs further as don`t think we will see much tonight. Decreasing clouds for the rest of the CWA as cumulus dissipates after sunset. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The stacked low over western Ontario will continue to lift slowly northward tonight, eventually stalling along the Manitoba and northwest Ontario border on Sunday. As another short wave crosses the FA Sunday night into Monday, the 500mb low along the Manitoba/northwest Ontario border will drop southeast behind it, reaching the Minnesota arrowhead late Monday night. 500mb ridging then builds in behind this, resulting in more normal highs for Wednesday and beyond (normal highs are around 70 now). The surface pressure pattern is very weak tonight, so expect winds to become light quickly by dark. Any lingering daytime clouds will thin out about the same time as well, setting up another chilly night. Went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory mainly for areas along the Canadian border, where the temperature should dip to around 35 degrees. It is still early in the season, but if people have sensitive plants, they should cover them if possible to protect them from the cold. The first wave will track through the FA mainly Sunday night into Monday. Showers and some embedded thunder will track from west to east across the FA during this period. With the absence of much instability/thunder, precipitation amounts should mainly be 0.10 to 0.20 inches, with some spots of 0.25 to 0.50 inches. There is more uncertainty with the second wave for Thursday to Saturday. This does appear to be deeper/stronger, but it also has the potential for wave interactions and multiple waves. Also, with return of slightly more normal temperatures (low 70s), there is the potential for a little more organized thunderstorm activity. At this point, the probabilities for more than 0.50 inches of rain are still fairly low (20-30 percent). As this period gets closer, will get a better idea on how it may unfold. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Cumulus clouds that have been hovering around 3500 ft in some places will dissipate in the next few hours, with VFR conditions for the rest of the period expected. Winds that are mostly northwesterly at 10 to 20 kts will become light and variable overnight. Will have to watch for ground fog formation towards Sunday morning but probabilities for 3 miles or lower visibility are less than 20 percent so will not include in the TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-015- 016-054. MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ004>009. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon