Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
073 FXUS63 KFGF 051734 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the early evening, mainly across portions of the central and northern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west central Minnesota. - Winds will become very gusty from late morning through the early evening, with gusts to 50 mph along and west of the Red River Valley. - Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons all look to feature gusty northwest winds with a few showers. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Low chance of upgrading a few counties to a high wind warning with a few gusts to 50 mph in upper devils lake basin though not seeing the development of a sting jet or strong vort max moving through and thus will continue to monitor conditions and react as necessary. UPDATE Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Sparingly seeing these weak echos actually reach the ground so tempered pops a bit with a blend of high res cams. Overall forecast remains on track with low chances for severe this afternoon which will depend on the location of the passing trough. Currently looks to be further east into MN by the time thermos recover enough for afternoon convection shortening the potential window for convection in our area. UPDATE Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Seeing a few mid level echoes on radar early this morning, not sure much is actually reaching the ground. However, went ahead and added some isolated morning showers to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...Synopsis... There is more shortwave activity evident on water vapor imagery early this morning over southeast Saskatchewan. Ensembles show portions of this wave moving into northwest Minnesota by 18z or so. Elongated 500/700mb low pressure will then set up from southern Saskatchewan/southern Manitoba through the Great Lakes through at least Saturday. Much less confidence enters the forecast thereafter, in how this pattern may break down. ...Strong to severe thunderstorms today... With morning sunshine and cold temperatures aloft, seeing about 500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE developing across northwest Minnesota this afternoon. The upper jet will also be pushing into the FA by later in the day. With very strong winds aloft, and steep mid level lapse rates, any showers or storms that form have the potential to mix these stronger winds to the surface. The new SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has portions of the central and northern Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west central Minnesota in a marginal risk for severe weather, with the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. ...Gusty winds today... Unidirectional winds throughout the entire sounding are expected today. 850mb winds by 00z Thu look to be about 35 knots along and west of the Valley, and up to 40 across the Devils Lake region. At 700mb, add another 5 to 10 knots to those values. There is a decent surface pressure gradient and steady 850mb cold advection. Think this is a good day to go with winds higher than what the NBM shows, which will bring Wind Advisory criteria into the Red River Valley as well. It will take a while before the worst of the winds move in, which should be through the afternoon into early evening. ...Thursday, Friday, and Saturday... Overall the elongated low pressure across southern Canada to the Great Lakes will take a while to break down, which means not much change in the weather from Thursday through Saturday. The upper jet continues to linger across the FA as well, holding on the southern periphery of the low. Wind speeds may not be quite as strong as today, but some areas could need a Wind Advisory again Thursday. Some afternoon showers are also possible each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Likely a few thunderstorms in NW Minnesota this afternoon affecting TVF and BJI. Winds 20-30 mph this afternoon gusting 35-40 mph, gusts dissipate overnight before returning tomorrow afternoon though slightly weaker winds tomorrow. VFR conditions for the period asides from periods of Thunder out east with fuel alternate thresholds for winds in some locations. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/TT DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...TT