498
FXUS63 KFGF 060338
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds Thursday over 30-50 mph are forecast across
  portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest into west-
  central Minnesota.

- Scattered showers each of the next few days.

- Drier conditions this weekend before shower chances return
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Advisory and warning criteria winds have since subsided as the
boundary layer begins to decouple after sunset with surface
inversion developing. As such, let the Wind Advisory and High
Wind Warning expire.

UPDATE
Issued at 722 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Highest winds should begin to lessen in coverage as we approach
sunset, but still could see more sporadic very windy gusts over
50 mph through 9 PM in portions of the Red River Valley and
eastern ND. Thus, will likely keep Wind Warning and Advisory
valid through then, even if majority of observations come in
under criteria.

Winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight
given continued low level cold air advection over the area, but
not to advisory/warning criteria.

Showers/thunderstorms responsible for pea sized hail and gusts
over 55 mph are exiting our area into central Minnesota as
forcing for ascent and instability continues southeast. The
chance for additional strong/severe storms has diminished. Still
will see additional showers/sprinkles across the area through
tonight, as lobe of vorticity continues to influence our area
amid persistent CAA aloft near cloud bearing layer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Synopsis...

Continue to note shortwave activity rotating around an upper low in
Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Coupled with strong strong mid level cold
advection and 850-700 mb flow of 40-50 kts a windy pattern is
expected to continue through Thursday before flow weakens. After
this upper low moves southeast along a tongue of potential vorticity
stretching to the great lakes region a mid level trough finally
clears the low level jet east of our area. In the meantime steep sfc-
700mb lapse and will maintain shower chances each day though
diminishing through the weekend.

... High Wind Warning/ Wind Advisory...

Strong 850mb flow can be noted in latest RAP analysis of 40-45 kts
with a max of 50+ approaching from the SE Manitoba will overspread
the upper Devils Lake basin this afternoon pushing winds into High
Wind Warning criteria as 40+ mph sustained winds and gusts to 60 mph
are possible. As the BL decouples this evening gusts should quickly
diminish though may remain quite breezy through midnight. For
tomorrow a similar pattern is forecast though thinking the core of
the strongest winds aloft and PGF at the sfc will past us and only
warrant a wind advisory for eastern North Dakota and adjacent
portions of Minnesota. Punting on issuance to avoid confusion with
current active headlines but foresee evening or night crew issuing
more wind headlines.

...Fire Weather...

Decreasing shower chances (see below) leading to more widespread low
RH values with our remaining strong winds teaming up to give winds
over 20 mph and RH as low as 30%. Knowing the bias in the dewpoint
forecast would lean into upper 20s for humidity planning purposes.
Winds seem to be well handled with this predictable pattern thus not
expecting critical fire weather conditions but certainly to
keep in the back of the mind and monitor.

...Shower Activity...

Steep lapse rates and diurnal heating will continue to favor shower
and thunderstorm formation. A weak shortwave rotating through the
area should promote more widespread convective growth this afternoon
through favoring NW Minnesota. Any collapsing storm should tap into
the stronger winds aloft warranting the 5% risk across the area for
wind though hail potential looks low due to shallow nature of
storms. The lower freezing levels could help compensate for this
however thus the 5% hail risk. Shallower boundary layer Thursday and
Friday will cut down on severe chances through general thunderstorms
and scattered showers remain a 30% chance each day.

...Weekend and Beyond...

Thermal ridging moves in under upper troughing this weekend further
diminishing precip chances for a few days before trough returns to
the western CONUS bringing more shortwave activity to the northern
plains early next week. Less than 30% chance for > 0.10" of precip
any given day due to uncertainty in pattern evolution, though
general pattern looks favorable for more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Gusty northwest winds between 25-35kt will continue to impact
TAF sites through 00Z Friday, including tonight. Winds will be
relatively lower tonight through 15Z until another uptick in
winds start thereafter. Gusts Thursday after 15Z are forecast
to be generally between 30-40kt.

MVFR CIGs are forecast to spread into northeast ND and northwest
MN tonight. TAF sites forecast to be impacted include KDVL,
KGFK,KTVF, and KBJI. These lowered CIGs are forecast to lift
into VFR criteria around 15Z Thursday, although confidence is
lowered in timing of this improvement, with a 30% chance it
extends after 18Z Thursday.

Isolated light rain showers/virga will remain possible tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ