458
FXUS63 KFGF 081208
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next more widespread rain and thunderstorm chance returns to
  the area late Monday into Monday night. Predictability is low
  for impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Skies clear at 12z. From CU rules likely enough moisture near
850 mb to generate some CU for the afternoon. Still looking at
isold shower/t-storm mention in our north, but 06z model data is
not suggesting much more than isolated coveage.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb short wave which brought light rain showers to the area
Saturday afternoon and night is exiting the area with all
showers moving out of the forecast area prior to 11z. In its
wake will be a clear to partly cloudy sky to start the day and
thru the morning. There is a short wave seen on water vapor
moving west thru NW Ontario and this short wave is progged to
drop back south tonight and into the Duluth area 12z Sunday. A
weak surface boundary will accompany this upper wave. This
boundary will move into southern Manitoba mid to late afternoon
today and a couple hundred j/kg CAPE should be enough to
generate isold shower or t-storms in S Manitoba and then move
south into far NE ND and NW MN before activity dies off this
evening. Airmass this system is moving into is very dry below
800 mb limiting any rainfall to a trace to a couple hundredths
and that in isolated areas already mentioned.

Mild today with highs low-mid 70s with a northwest wind 10-20
kts.

Weak boundary moves south tonight and Sunday will see a north
wind at 10-20 kts and cooler air at the sfc-850 mb move in, most
noticeable in NW MN with highs on Sunday in the low-mid 60s. Dry
conditions Sunday.

Next week showing a system for Monday late into Monday
night/early Tuesday. Then afterwards warmer air mid week and
then potential for stormy conditions as we look ahead to next
weekend, but much depends on position of upper ridge that is
projected to build into the area and 500 mb trough to our west.

...More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances move in late
Monday and Monday night...

After a good deal of disagreement in past days in regards to
Monday, better agreement with the 00z model suite and ensembles
in showing next short wave moving in off the Pacific into
Oregion and then Montana and northeast into SE Saskatchewan and
southern Manitoba Monday night. Sfc low pressure will be located
near the upper wave track with a boundary moving east into E ND
Monday night and exiting NW/WC MN Tuesday. A period of likely
pops with this system with WPC indicating average QPF in the
0.30 to 0.50 inch range. A few t-storms as well, but MU CAPE
values remain very low (sub 200 j/kg) as it moves thru our area
Monday night/early Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Mainly clear at 12z then toward 18z and the aftn expect to see
some CU so put that in the TAF for sky cover. Some BKN CU psbl
in far north (north of any TAF site) where risk of isold
thunderstorm remains mid to late aftn. WNW winds today 8 to 13
kts gusts near 20 kts. Skies clear tonight as winds turn north 5
to 10 kts after sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle