204
FXUS63 KFGF 080445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers to spread southeastward across the area this
evening tapering off by late tonight.

- More widespread storm chances return to the area late Monday
  into Monday night. Predictability is low for impacts

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers continue to push south across the region, approaching
the I-94 corridor. Made some further tweaks to POPs for timing,
but no further changes.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers continue to slowly move south of the Highway 2 corridor,
and adjusted POPs accordingly. No impacts from the light rain
other than pretty rainbows.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers producing some light rain mainly along the Highway 2
corridor, with minimal impacts. As the shortwave digs south
later this evening there is still good agreement on some
slightly more robust showers moving southeastward through the
rest of the during the late evening and overnight. No
instability to speak of so only impacts will be more light rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow pattern remains in place across the area with a
shortwave trough dropping southeastward through the area from
Saskatchewan tonight. This weak wave is slightly
deepening/strengthening as it drops southeast with mainly mid
level moisture present. Therefore some uncertainty into how much
rain will reach the ground with the area of showers. However as
the wave strengthens, expect more intense showers to develop
with ok moisture advection present into the area by this
evening. Therefore have increasing pops and confidence in
showers into the evening hours across the central/southern
portions of the forecast area this evening into the overnight
hours. Little to no instability present, so left out any mention
of thunder at this time.

Large complex of low pressure area situated to the northwest and
far northeast remains to the north with the northwest flow
pattern into the weekend. A slow wobble to the south Saturday
with another shortwave rotating around the western upper low to
eject southeastward across the area Saturday. Again could see
some additional isolated to scattered shower development in the
afternoon hours. Some instability present with this wave, so an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the northeast/east.

As that upper low continues to wobble southward it will merge
with another area of low pressure moving ashore in the Pacific
NW/Northern Rockies. This will start to develop more of a SW
upper flow pattern across the area into early next week. This
will bring in increasing low level moisture, return flow and a
warm front lifting north across the area late Monday into Monday
night. Overrunning may lead to some initial showers, with
chances for more widespread showers/storms as the warm front
lifts northward. Uncertainty in timing/strength of moisture
return and warm frontal progress will determine the overall
threat for storms and the predictability for strong to severe
storms/impacts, etc. More of an active zonal flow pattern then
sets up through the remainder of the week with overall low
predictability in overall precipitation/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions although rain showers pushing through KFAR and
KBJI for the next hour or so could briefly bring vis down to the
3-5SM range. Showers should exit the area by early morning.
Winds from the southwest at most sites will become more
northwesterly by Saturday afternoon with some gusts around 20
kts, then settle back down again around sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...JR