829
FXUS63 KFGF 291115
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
615 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active weather pattern will continue with several chances
  of rainfall through the next 7 days with Thursday and Sunday
  into Monday being the most likely to see widespread 0.25" or
  more amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Overall good agreement with model ensembles leading to above
average confidence with the forecast wrt to overall temp and
precip pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend.
After a dry and sunny day today as upper level ridging traverses
the area attention turns to Thursday. Synoptic forcing with
upper wave in MT lifting into Manitoba and southwest 500mb flow
and associated mid level trough will spread lift east across the
FA Thursday. Reinforcing an area of showers and initiating some
thunderstorms. HREF place the highest QPF in the southern valley
not surprising with the highest, though meager, CAPE values,
100 to 300J/kg of ML CAPE. Probabilities of more than a half
inch of rainfall have decreased across the north, now less than
25% to 50 to 60% in the southern valley, with probs of an inch
or more now at or less than 10% for the entire area.

The area will remain in fairly flat or zonal flow with multiple
chance for rainfall through the weekend and into next week. We
will continue to remain on the low end of any instability until
Sunday night when we should see some deeper moisture build into
the area. This is the next chance for more wide spread areal
rainfall after the spotty and lighter amounts associated with
the chances Friday night and Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Needless to say the active pattern does look to persist into the
beginning of June with temps climbing closer to normal with more
70 degree days occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Some shallow morning fog is developing in some spots across the
airports. By 14z all the fog should be burned off and conditions
will remain VFR for all TAF sites. Southerly winds will bounce
between 150-170 degrees. Gusty winds will become prominent
around this afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots expected. A low
level jet looks to setup this tonight with wind shear up to 45
knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MM