Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
494 FXUS65 KFGZ 010418 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 918 PM MST Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and breezy afternoon winds will continue to be the main weather story. && .UPDATE...Another round of tranquil weather conditions is expected for tonight with near average temperatures and little to no wind. Even though sky coverage remains clear, radar is "active", currently picking up on the bird migration over northern Arizona. Daytime temperatures for Saturday are forecast to be quite similar compared to this afternoon`s with Flagstaff reaching 80 degrees again. Afternoon southwest winds will be a bit more enhanced as a weak, upper-level trough begins to push through from the west. Expect widespread gusts of 20-30 mph during this time. Conditions remain dry with minimal cloud cover and afternoon humidity of 5-15%. The current forecast remains on track with no changes needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /407 PM MST/...A zonal flow continues to bring warm temperatures and dry conditions to northern Arizona. There are a few areas with high-level clouds currently, mostly along the higher terrain. The chances for showers in these areas is not zero, but the likely scenario for falling precipitation will be in the form of virga - rain that evaporates before reaching the ground. Afternoon highs today were expected to reach 2-10 degrees above normal, with slightly cooler conditions moving in over the weekend. A week disturbance will sweep across the state Saturday and Sunday, elevating afternoon winds and dropping afternoon highs by a few degrees. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 20-30 mph on Saturday. Winds look to slightly decrease and shift more westerly for Sunday. There does not appear to be any moisture that will reach our CWA out of this disturbance, so minimum RH values will continue to be in the single digits - upper teens. Next week we`ll begin to see high pressure set up over the region, quickly warming temperatures up across the state. Nearly right on time to the start of the Meteorological Summer, afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s for many areas above 6000` and 90s/100s for lower elevation areas. As we start to quickly reach these hotter conditions, be sure to limit your time outdoors, seek shade often, and always stay hydrated! Also during this warming period, model guidance is suggesting the formation of a low off the Baja of California Coast. Depending on how well this pattern holds, there will be the potential for moisture to be funneled into our region by the end of next week...more on that later. && .AVIATION...Saturday 01/00Z through Sunday 02/00Z...Look for VFR conditions. Light winds overnight becoming southwest at 10-20 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Sunday 02/00Z through Tuesday 04/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Afternoon southwest winds a 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts each day. Light and variable winds in the overnight and early morning periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Look for dry and warm conditions to continue. Daytime humidity will drop to 5-15%. Southwest winds each day around 10-20 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph on Saturday. Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry weather will continue. Southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon. Minimum humidity ranging from 5-15% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Konieczny AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff