275
FXUS65 KFGZ 162002
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
102 PM MST Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will stick
around today. Warmer and drier weather looks to return Friday
through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each
afternoon. Unsettled weather likely to return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Tonight...As a shortwave departs Arizona
today, one last round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for
today. Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop
mainly over the higher terrain to the east of a Crown King to
Happy Jack to Ganado line. Coverage should continue to increase
over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona through the
afternoon, then moving north to south off the terrain. Given the
flow, the most likely areas to see some showers look to be the
Bradshaw Mountains eastward across the Mogollon Rim and into the
White Mountains. Additional activity is expected over the Chuska
Mountains as well. With PWAT largely 0.30-0.50 inches across the
area, coverage should be mainly isolated. Additionally, with dry
air in the lower levels, the main threats from any storm should be
just gusty, erratic outflow winds and lightning. Coverage should
begin to decrease later this evening, with only a couple lingering
showers expected near the White Mountains through midnight.

Friday through Sunday...Drier conditions begin to set in as high
pressure builds back into Arizona. Temperatures will remain around 5
deg F above normal through the weekend. Winds will gradually increase
from the southwest, with afternoon breezes around 25-35 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...A cut-off low off the California Coast
begins to make an approach at the start of next week. Much stronger
winds ensue on Monday as the low moves into Arizona and looks to
phase with a secondary trough moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Model soundings indicate that winds in excess of 35-45 mph are
probable along and downwind of the higher terrain. The gusty winds
combined with a dry air mass in place could potentially lead to
critical fire weather conditions come Monday. As of now, gusty winds
and cooler temperatures look to be the only sensible weather impacts
as moisture looks to be to scarce for any mentionable precipitation
chances.

Behind the low, zonal flow looks to set in for the middle of next
week. Breezy winds, dry conditions, and near-normal temperatures
look to remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 16/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR
expected with W-NW winds 10-20 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA mainly along
and south of KFLG-KRQE line. Brief MVFR conditions possible in any
stronger storms that develop. Erratic outflow wind gust up to 40
mph in/near shower activity. Shower activity ends by 03Z with
light winds expected overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 17/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z...VFR conditions
expected with W-SW winds 10-20 kts in the afternoons.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Arizona will dissipate after sunset. Erratic outflow
winds up to 40 mph possible in or near showers and storms. Dry
conditions return for Friday and Saturday. South to west winds 10-20
mph with afternoon RH values between 10-20%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
through the start of the week. Southwest to west winds 15-25 mph
gusting to 30-35 mph Sunday, increasing to 25-35 mph gusting to 35-
45 mph on Monday, then decreasing on Tuesday. Afternoon RH values
will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical fire weather
concerns, especially across eastern Arizona, on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff