Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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335 FXUS65 KFGZ 301657 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 957 AM MST Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm conditions along with reoccurring afternoon breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week. This weekend will see slightly stronger gusts compared to today and Friday. Regardless, the uptick in wind will have minimal impacts. && .UPDATE...Another fair weather day lies ahead for northern Arizona. Nothing to update at this time but Friday could see a few afternoon cloud buildups as moisture increases slightly. Mainly just an increase in cloudiness but isolated virga showers, stray sprinkles and even a bit of gusty wind at the surface can`t be ruled out. && .PREV DISCUSSION /318 AM MST/...Zonal flow has set-up for today and will persist through most of Friday. Winds are going to remain SW-W during the day, though gusts will drop today compared to yesterday. Expecting temperatures to moderate today and tomorrow. CAMs are hinting at isolated showers along the higher terrain today and slightly more for tomorrow. However, dry air in place should all but prevent this from occurring/making it to the surface. Going into the weekend, another trough will pass us by to the north. Overall impacts will be limited as it will be too far north for any real influence outside of bumping our afternoon gusts up slighty, around 20-30 mph. High temperatures will take a slight hit...but only by roughly 2-4 degrees. Following the trough this weekend, ridging returns for at least the first half of next work week. During this time, temperatures are going to moderate. Triple digits are on the board for the lower elevations by Wednesday and even much of the higher elevations will start to break into the 80s. Still monitoring the signal from models of precipitation chances by the end of next week when low pressure sets up on the coast near southern California and works with flow around the ridge to usher moisture into the region. && .AVIATION...Thursday 30/18Z through Friday 31/18Z...VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will continue through at least 20Z, with W-SW winds 10-15 kts afterwards. Winds should calm overnight, except localized breezes along/north of a KFLG-KSOW line. OUTLOOK...Friday 31/18Z through Sunday 02/18Z...VFR conditions look to persist through the outlook period. Winds will generally be out of the SW each afternoon, 5-15 kts sustained and gusting 20-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry and warm conditions, with southwest winds at 5-15 mph each afternoon. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15% with overnight recoveries of 25-45%. A non-zero chance of high-based showers Friday afternoon. Saturday through Monday...Warm and dry weather continues. Southwest winds 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph expected. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15% with overnight recovery 20-40%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/RKR AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff