Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251935
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1235 PM MST Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and unsettled weather, with periods of rain and
snow continue through Tuesday. Drier and warmer weather returns
mid-week, however winter weather potentially makes a return over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure has shifted east, but troughing
overhead persists. This will allow for additional shower and
storms activity today. Best forcing will be along the southern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains so best concentration will be
there. However, instability will be high today with ample heating
combined with lingering moisture so more isolated activity across
much of northern Arizona is possible.

Tuesday will feature greater coverage in precipitation than today
thanks to better forcing being available as the trough pushes east.
Likewise, ~500-1000 j/kg of CAPE will be available to drive
storms for much of the area. Snow levels are going to be elevated
though (7000+`): in reality, many even along the Rim are going to
receive a lot of graupel.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature quiet weather as ridging
passes overhead. Winds are still forecast to be increasing
Thursday as ridging departs and our next weather system
approaches. However, guidance has continued to slow this system
with stronger winds first starting Friday instead now...so don`t
be surprised to see winds continue to trend down in coming
forecast updates. Meanwhile, temperatures will be warming, though
only to normal for this time of year.

Friday on into the weekend remains a low confidence period: there
is high confidence in a weather system impacting the area.
Guidance has been slowing the arrival of the system, resulting in
slowing arrival of precipitation. Likewise, this means continued warming
temperatures with continued SW flow. That SW flow also allows
additional moisture to enter the area. So overall, there`s a lot
of shifting factors at the moment that are preventing additional
specifics at the moment. Stay tuned as forecast confidence
increases once some model consistency returns. Confidence is high
that winds are going to remain elevated Friday and into the
weekend until precipitation arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 25/18Z through Tuesday 26/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected across much of the region today. Periods
of MVFR/IFR VIS and CIGS are forecast from 20Z-02Z due to
scattered -SHSN/-SHRA along a KFLG-KSEZ-KPAN-KSOW line. SCT-BKN
low-level clouds will persist overnight. Anticipate west-
northwest winds for this afternoon, 15-25 kts, becoming 5-10 kts
after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 26/18Z through Thursday 28/18Z...Increased -SHRA/-SHSN
coverage is likely for Tuesday along and south of I-40 from 19Z-03Z.
Expect periods of MVFR/IFR conditions during this time. Widespread
VFR conditions return for Wednesday and Thursday due to a drying
trend. Anticipate breezier west-northwest winds on Tuesday, 15-30 kts,
becoming lighter, 10-15 kts, on Wednesday. Southwest winds, 15-25 kts,
return on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Another round of cold
temperatures and scattered rain and snow showers is expected on
Tuesday. Best chances for wetting rains (>0.10") are along the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Drier conditions are anticipated
on Wednesday with temperatures returning to average. West-northwest
winds, 15 to 30 mph, are forecast on Tuesday followed by lighter
west winds, 10 to 15 mph, on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...A warming and drying trend persists for
Thursday and Friday. Chances for precipitation increase late
Saturday night as a Pacific storm begins to move in from the west.
Breezy southwest winds return on Thursday, becoming gusty on Friday,
30 to 40 mph. The gusty southwest winds continue for Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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