464
FXUS65 KFGZ 080838
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
138 AM MST Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot daytime highs and mostly dry conditions forecast
through the week. Slight chances for showers/storms across the
higher terrain today and tomorrow, becoming more focused across
the White Mountains for the rest of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure remains centered over the
AZ/NM border, but we`ll gradually see this high shift around the
region through the next several days. With the current placement
of this ridge, daytime highs will continue to climb into the hot
to dangerously hot range. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for
lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through Thursday evening, but
this product will likely get extended due to the forecast 110+
temperatures sticking around through at least the weekend. Outside
of heat, there are slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon across the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and
Yavapai County.

Wednesday through Friday...The previously mentioned ridge will
gradually move westward through the end of the week, and weaken
from a trough passing through the Pacific Northwest and moving
into the upper-midwest. Daytime highs are forecast to peak on
Wednesday before slightly dropping from the weakening ridge, and
chances for precipitation look to become limited to the White
Mountains. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for Wednesday
afternoon/evening for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and
the lower elevations of northern Gila and Yavapai counties.

This weekend through early next week...With no large sweeping
trough on the horizon, high pressure will once again build across
the Southwest. We don`t look to return to a favorable monsoon
pattern by the end of the forecast period, so outside of climbing
daytime highs, precipitation chances look limited to the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 08/06Z through Wednesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA mainly west of a KPGA-KINW-KJTC line after 17Z-02Z.
VRB winds 5-10 kts, then SW winds 5-15 kts after 16Z. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds possible in and around TS.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 09/06Z through Friday 11/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW-KJTC
line Wednesday, then over the White Mountains on Thursday. W winds
10-15 kts each day. Gusty, erratic outflow winds possible in and
around TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Hot and mostly dry
conditions forecast to continue, outside of isolated storms across
the higher terrain. Minimum RH values look to be 10-20% each
afternoon with overnight recoveries between 30-60%. Look for
westerly winds 5-15 mph, but gusty/erratic winds are possible near
storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot temperatures will continue through
the weekend. Daily chances for showers/storms across the White
Mountains, but elsewhere should remain mostly sunny/dry. Look for
westerly winds each afternoon at 10-20 mph on Thursday and gradually
decreasing through the weekend. Minimum RH values between 8-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ018-
037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff