344
FXUS65 KFGZ 251623
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona today. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will
arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...A mostly clear morning is underway across northern
Arizona while southwest winds have been quick to develop. Gusts
of 30 to 35 mph are already being observed in the high country. A
dry, breezy, and slightly cooler day is in store with a trough
passage to our north today. The forecast trends are well on track
with no morning updates needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /511 AM MST/...A s/wv trough will move through the
eastern Great Basin today, passing to our north. This leaves us
on the dry and windy side of the trough, with a few degrees of
cooling as we are brushed by the colder air. Wind speeds will peak
today, with the strongest winds east of Flagstaff and north of
the Mogollon Rim. Most areas will stay just below Wind Advisory
criteria, a few areas may sneak above, but not enough for wind
headlines. However, winds will be high enough, when combined with
a very dry airmass, to warrant a Red Flag warning toady,
predominately for the Little Colorado River Valley and Chinle
Valley.

After today, heights begin to rise over northern Arizona, lasting
through next week. This will allow for much less wind, warmer
temperatures and continued dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 25/12Z through Sunday 26/12Z...VFR conditions
persist. SW winds today, increasing through the morning.
Afternoon gusts ranging from 30-40 kts. Winds gradually slack
this evening and tonight

OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/12Z through Tuesday 28/12Z...VFR conditions
continue to persist. SW-W winds 5-15 kts on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Critical fire weather conditions
today across the Little Colorado River Valley and Chinle Valley.
Elsewhere across northern Arizona will experience elevated fire
weather conditions with afternoon winds gusts 25-40 mph and min RHs
falling into the 20s to upper teens. Overnight recoveries tonight
will see most getting above 50 percent. Notably lower RHs for Sunday
but much lighter winds.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will be warming Monday
through Wednesday with min RHs falling into the low teens and single
digits. Overnight recoveries will become worse, only jumping into
the 20s and 30s by mid week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ110-112>114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/Peterson
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff