534
FXUS65 KFGZ 101737
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1037 AM MST Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions remain for
today. High pressure then begins to build over Arizona, leading
to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of the week.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish out the
week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...Extensive cloud cover continues over northeast Arizona,
due to a weak low over New Mexico. Made a minor update to the
forecast to get some mentionable light shower chances around the
Chuska Mountains for today, with the rest of the forecast
unchanged elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...Today...Dry and warm conditions are
expected for today, along with decreasing high clouds. Some
lingering moisture near the Arizona/New Mexico border may lead to
a couple isolated showers near the Chuska Mountains, while the
vast majority of northern Arizona will remain dry. Any shower that
does develop will be very light and likely not produce any
measurable rainfall.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure becomes amplified over
Arizona during the middle of the week. Temperatures begin to climb
as a result, with daytime highs nearing 10 degrees above normal.
Heights maximize on Wednesday, leading to the warmest temperatures
occurring then. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for areas
below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon, Marble and Glen Canyons, and
the lower elevations of Yavapai County for Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday Night through Sunday...A cut-off low of the California
Coast ejects off the Pacific late Thursday. As this happens, high
pressure begins to loosen it`s grip over Arizona and shift into the
central United States. Increased southwesterly winds and cooler
temperatures ensue, along with increasing moisture. Thus, chances
for showers and thunderstorms increase late Thursday into Friday,
especially for areas near and north of the I-40 corridor.

Behind the low, dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures
remain into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with mid to high level clouds over northeast/east
Arizona. W-SW winds 5-15 kts this afternoon, becoming light and
variable overnight. Lighter winds expected going into Tuesday.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/18Z through Thursday 13/18Z...VFR conditions
persisting. Daytime winds continue to remain W-SW, 10-20 kts with
gusts 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Seasonably warm and dry
today, with gradually dissipating cloud cover and light northerly
winds near the New Mexico Border. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies and
southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Warmer and dry on Tuesday, northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph over the eastern zones, then southwesterly 10 to
20 mph elsewhere.

Wednesday through Friday...Very warm and dry conditions Wednesday
and Thursday. West through southwest winds 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday
and 15 to 25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Winds gusts around 30 mph
possible Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system brings cooler
temperatures and a chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms
overnight Thursday night into Friday, especially north of the
Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Humphreys
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff