Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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727 FXUS65 KFGZ 102042 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 142 PM MST Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions remain for today. High pressure then begins to build over Arizona, leading to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of the week. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish out the week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION...Weak low pressure over New Mexico continues to keep northeast Arizona partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon. Modest low level moisture (dewpoints near 40F) will bring a few isolated light showers this afternoon during peak heating, mainly near the Chuska Mountains. Elsewhere, near normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies prevail. Tuesday and Wednesday - high pressure centered over northern Mexico will strengthen and extend northward into Arizona. Afternoon high temperatures will increase accordingly, reaching near 10 degrees above climatological averages Tuesday then 10-15 degrees above for Wednesday. The Excessive Heat Warning for areas below 4000 feet beginning Wednesday looks good. A closed low off the coast of northern Baja will begin to shift eastward by Wednesday with an increase in wind speeds in western Arizona with gusts 25-30 mph. Thursday and Friday - there is good model agreement that the closed low off the coast will move northeastward toward western Arizona Thursday, then cross the state Thursday night and Friday. Gradients out ahead of the low increase and will lead to more widespread gusty southwest winds Thursday, becoming more westerly and shifting to mainly eastern Arizona for Friday. Preliminary speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph are forecast. This will bring some elevated fire weather concerns as humidity remains low. The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through Thursday. As the low moves across the area, it will bring some mainly mid level moisture with it, leading to a chance of high- based showers Thursday evening. By Friday, the best chance (20-40%) for high-based showers and thunderstorms shifts to areas mainly northeast of the Mogollon Rim. There will be a threat of dry lightning and some new fire starts, again mainly northeast AZ. Saturday and Sunday - the closed low moves well east of Arizona as a larger trough takes shape over the northwest US. Dry weather returns with breezy southwest winds. Temperatures a few degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...Monday 10/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions persist with mid to high level clouds over northeast/east Arizona. W-SW winds 5-15 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Lighter winds expected going into Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/18Z through Thursday 13/18Z...VFR conditions persisting. Daytime winds continue to remain W-SW, 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and low teens to single digit afternoon RHs expected both Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday will feature generally light winds with varying directions. Winds increase Wednesday becoming SW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts 15-25 mph. Thursday through Saturday...Elevated fire weather conditions expected for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon RHs will continue falling into the low teens to single digits through the week for most of northern Arizona. Winds will increase Thursday and Friday with afternoon gusts 20-35 mph. Lighter winds are expected Saturday but warm, dry weather persists. Isolated showers and high based thunderstorms are possible north of the Mogollon Rim Thursday night into Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff