731
FXUS65 KFGZ 121152
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
452 AM MST Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures, even for June, are in the forecast
the next couple of days. Some relief from the heat arrives Thursday
evening into Friday along with a chance for light rain showers
and thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will be minimal with dry
lightning possible. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return by the
weekend, continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure in the region will keep temperatures
elevated today, bringing daytime temperatures roughly 10 degrees
above normal. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for
elevations below 4,000 feet and will be in effect at 10 AM MST
this morning. While the heat will be felt across the state, the
Grand Canyon, Marble Canyon, Glen Canyon, and the lower elevations
of Yavapai County will likely experience the greatest impacts.
Now is the time to hydrate. Whether recreating or working outside,
avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day (10
am to 7 pm.) Make sure to check in on vulnerable populations such
as the elderly, especially if they do not have air conditioning.
Adding to the heat will be mostly sunny skies. Some afternoon
breezes out of the southwest will only provide minor relief.

Thursday and Friday...Slight improvements will be noticed on
Thursday as temperatures begin to abate with increasing cloud
cover pushing south to north throughout the day. The cut-off low
that is currently located west of northern Baja California will
lift to the north and then northeast beginning Thursday afternoon.
This will displace the high pressure area eastward, helping to
prevent temperatures from climbing too high. By the late afternoon,
slight rain chances enter the forecast for Yavapai County and
western Coconino County. Precipitation is expected to be limited
with light rain possible over higher elevations and mostly virga
for lower elevations. Regardless the sparse coverage Thursday,
rain chances will increase overnight as the low continues to
advance northeastward. By Friday, rain showers will shift to areas
along and north of the Mogollon Rim as the low continues its
journey across Arizona. The best chances for rain will be in
northeast Arizona, especially over the Chuska Mountains and Black
Mesa. Once again, dry conditions in the lower portion of the
atmosphere will limit accumulation. Model projected CAPE values in
the 200-500 J/kg range will allow for convection by late morning
with models projecting the higher CAPE values for the Mogollon
Rim and northward. Dry lightning along with gusty, erratic winds
will be legitimate concerns where thunderstorms develop. Outside
of storms, winds will gradually shift from breezy southwesterlies
Thursday to breezy west-northwest Friday with the passing of the
low pressure system. Temperatures to end the week will be seasonal.

Saturday through Wednesday...High pressure returns to the area
over the weekend into next week. However, zonal flow to our north
will prevent a dominant ridge from developing. If the model
projections are correct, this synoptic setup will limit extreme
temperatures for northern Arizona, keeping conditions near average.
Furthermore, a longwave trough looks to force its way south by
the middle of next week, bringing a return of cooler temperatures.
While there is uncertainty for this portion of the forecast, the
trough is expected to displace upper-level high pressure, preventing
our typical pre-monsoon weather pattern from setting up. At least
temperatures will be near average and manageable.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/12Z through Thursday 13/12Z...VFR
conditions prevail. Light, variable surface winds this morning
will become SW at 10-15 kts gusting around 20-25 kts between
17Z-03Z before calming overnight once again.


OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...VFR conditions
continue as cloud cover gradually increases Thursday. Periods of
isolated -SHRA/-TSRA enter the forecast for areas near KPRC by the
afternoon Thursday. RA/TS chances and coverage increase Thursday
night into Friday, spreading east and northeast. Gusty, erratic
winds are likely near thunderstorms. Away from TS, winds will be
at 10-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts, shifting from W-SW Thursday to
W-NW Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry, hot weather with afternoon
RH values from 5-15%. Daytime temperatures will be roughly 10
degrees above average. West-southwest winds will gust at 15-25 mph
both days. A slight chance (10-25%) for showers and thunderstorms
begins Thursday afternoon for Yavapai County and western Coconino
County. Rain chances (15-40%) and coverage increase overnight.

Friday through Sunday...Slightly cooler and cloudy Friday as rain
chances continue through much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms
will lead to dry lightning and erratic, gusty winds, primarily for
northeast Arizona. Afternoon humidity will be in the teens for much
of the area. Breezy winds shift to the west-northwest. Dry and warm
Saturday and Sunday with breezy southwest winds strengthening. Windy
conditions Sunday will cause near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning
to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff