Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
299 FXUS65 KFGZ 081701 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1001 AM MST Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Although temperatures cool slightly this weekend, afternoon high temperatures will remain above average. Any isolated showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern Arizona Sunday into next week. Hot temperatures return towards the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...No updates with the forecast this morning. Just watching some high level clouds swing around the high today. Some cumulus building in NM gives signs that we may eventually see our low chance of a high based thunderstorm over the White Mountains come to fruition today...though coverage and timing still looks very limited. && .PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...A dip in temperatures will provide some relief from the heat as the upper-level ridge shifts eastward this weekend. Despite the fall in pressure heights, afternoon high temperatures will still be a few to 8 degrees above normal today. Models indicate drier air in northern Arizona today with precipitable water in the 0.2" to 0.4" range. Little to no precipitation is expected across the area. Winds will be out of the west-southwest with breezes around 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. By Sunday, temperatures will return to near average with a bit weaker southwesterly winds. Atmospheric moisture does creep upwards for eastern Arizona. This will allow for a slight chance (10-25%) of showers and storms Sunday afternoon, primarily for the White Mountains. Slight chances linger into next week for eastern Arizona. Deja vu! A broad area of high pressure will redevelop over western CONUS next week, driving another warming trend. Additionally, a low pressure area off the coast of Baja California will bring southerly flow, aiding in above average temperatures. Wednesday currently looks to be the hottest day next week with afternoon highs around 10 degrees above the seasonal norm. By the end of next week, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the low near Baja California lifting to the northeast and moving directly across Arizona. There is some disagreement between models on the timing of this system, but the arrival is currently expected sometime between late Thursday and Friday. This will help support the chance of rain being more widespread. However, due to the limited moisture, high-based storms and dry lightning are more likely than wetting rains. Continue to practice caution and follow fire restrictions as we pensively wait for the end of fire season and the onset of the North American Monsoon. && .AVIATION...Saturday 08/18Z through Sunday 09/18Z...VFR conditions persist. SW winds 10-20 with gusts 15-25 kts. Calm and variable winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions continue to persist. Expecting some high based TS activity near and southeast of KSOW Sunday afternoon and evening. Continued light winds overnight, becoming SW 10-20 with gusts 15-25 kts during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...A slight cooling trend will take place this weekend, with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph, each afternoon. Aside from a very slight chance of high-based showers/thunderstorms near the White Mountains Sunday, conditions remain dry. Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warmer temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime RH values below 15 percent and southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR/Mazon AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff