354
FXUS65 KFGZ 111659
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
959 AM MST Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will strengthen over Arizona, leading to
hot temperatures across the region through the middle of the week.
By Friday, a low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and
a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures rebound as we
dry out Saturday, followed by more seasonable temperatures heading
into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Temperatures are quickly climbing this morning, with
many places already in the 70s and 80s across central/northern
Arizona. With temperatures continuing to increase tomorrow and
Thursday, our Excessive Heat Warning for many areas below 4000`
remains on track. Following the heat, isolated to scattered
precipitation chances return to the forecast late Thursday through
Friday. Although many areas that could see precipitation are
expected to be less than 0.05", we cannot rule out the possibility
of localized areas seeing wetting rains.

The previous forecast remains largely on track, so no updates were
made. Check out the discussion below for more details...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /342 AM MST/...A cutoff low southwest of San
Diego will remain in place for a few days, allowing a narrow,
high amplitude ridge to develop along the AZ/NM border. This will
bring a heat wave to our area, starting today and peaking
Wednesday and Thursday. Excessive Heat Warnings have already been
hoisted for our lower elevations and this will remain in place.

The cutoff low will break loose at some point Thursday and will
eject ENE across the Lower Colorado River and northern Arizona
Thursday night into Friday. Southerly flow ahead of the low will
import some modestly higher dew points, which will combine with
limited mid-level moisture and cooling associated with the core of
the low. This will produce scattered, high-based convection
for Thursday night and Friday over our CWA.

The convection coupled with gusty winds (below any NPW/FWX criteria)
will also lead to elevated FWX concerns. However, relative humidity
values will be on the rise and some storms may actually contain
wetting rains. The bigger story is the heat for now, followed by
three days of breezy winds (Wed-Fri) and then the threat for
pockets of high-based convection.

Temperatures will cool in response to the low passage Friday, then
will rebound as we dry out Saturday, followed by a "cooler" zonal
pattern heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...VFR
conditions for the next 24 hours. West/southwest winds today
between 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z. Southwest
wind speeds increasing again after 17Z Wednesday, with gusts in
the 15-25 kt range.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/18Z through Friday 14/18Z...VFR conditions,
outside of brief periods of MVFR in -SHRA/-TSRA after 00Z Friday.
Gusty, erratic winds possible near thunderstorms. Winds
west/southwest 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with hot
temperatures, along with afternoon RH values 5-15%. West/southwest
winds 10 mph or less, becoming southwest 10-15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot conditions remain on Thursday,
before cooling slightly. Breezy west/southwest winds with gusts of
20-30 mph possible each afternoon. Chance for isolated high-based
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday, especially along
and north of the Mogollon Rim. Dry conditions are otherwise expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/Peterson
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff