637
FXUS65 KFGZ 260508
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1008 PM MST Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona today. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will
arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...As the shortwave trough to our north passes east into
Colorado this evening, a prolonged period of tranquil weather
awaits us. High pressure will build over the Southwest in the
coming days, bringing mainly light winds and the warmest
temperatures of the season so far. For those that love the time
of year when the air is desiccatingly dry and the sun is searingly
hot, the upcoming week`s forecast will bring you ineffable joy.

Minor updates were made to tonight`s sky cover and wind grids.
The rest of the forecast remains on track. Today`s Red Flag
Warning was allowed to expire on time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /428 PM MST/...Arizona remains on the dry side of
a shortwave trough passing from Utah into Colorado today. The
main shortwave stays far enough north to keep any associated
moisture north of Arizona, but sufficient pressure gradients have
resulted in the development of gusty southwest winds. Wind gusts
this afternoon are ranging from 30 to 50 mph, with the strongest
occurring just downwind of the Mogollon Rim. Humidity will be low
enough in the lower elevations of northeastern Arizona today to
combine with the wind to generate critical fire weather
conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect there until 6
PM. The trough axis moves east of Arizona this evening allowing
pressure gradients to slacken and winds to decrease tonight.

High pressure will gradually build over the Southwest over the
coming days and bring a quieter weather period for the rest of
the holiday weekend through next week. Much less wind is expected
and temperatures will climb above normal by Monday and remain so
through the week. At this time, the lack of wind should limit any
critical fire weather concerns, however, a warming an drying
trend is expected with afternoon humidity dropping into the single
digits to low teens each day from Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 26/06Z through Monday 27/06Z...VFR. SW-W winds
10-20 kts after 18Z, becoming light and variable after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 27/06Z through Wednesday 29/06Z...VFR. SW-W
winds 5-15 kts Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warming temperatures and
lighter winds through Monday with minimum RH values 5-15% each
afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures warm further on Tuesday then
remain warm through Thursday. Min RHs will be 5-15% each day with
overnight recoveries only around 20-40% by mid week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/MCT
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff