402
FXUS65 KFGZ 182125
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
225 PM MST Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend
with a slight cool down next week. Look for gusty afternoon winds
each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather
disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A pretty typical mid-May weather pattern is setting
up across the region with gusty winds each day and mostly dry
conditions. A weak trough approaching this afternoon has resulted
in southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph. Just a few mid and
high clouds but dry weather prevails. Sunday`s winds and
temperatures will be similar to today, but skies will be mostly
sunny.

Monday is shaping up to be the windiest day of the week as a
stronger trough crosses the region. Sustained southwest winds of
20-30 mph with gusts 35-55 mph are forecast, strongest just north
of the Mogollon Rim including the Little Colorado River Valley
and portions of northeast Arizona. Low daytime humidity will also
combine with the winds and lead to critical fire weather conditions.
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued Monday for areas where fuels
have dried to critical levels. As the trough crosses the area
later Monday afternoon and evening, there is low chance (<10%) of
a light shower or sprinkle but most areas will remain dry.

Tuesday through Friday - the trough moves eastward Tuesday, with
some lingering breeziness especially in east central AZ. Another
low is forecast to move from the Pac NW Wednesday to the northern
Plains Friday. While this system will remain will north of AZ, it
could kick up our winds again Thu/Fri afternoons but confidence is
low right now. Otherwise, dry and mild weather is expected
through the period, with daily high temperatures 2-5 degrees
cooler than normal. Low will also be cooler than normal Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings with such a dry air mass. High country
gardeners need to pay attention to the forecast as below freezing
temperatures are a possibility for the usual cold spots including
Flagstaff, Bellemont/Parks, Tusayan.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z...VFR conditions
through the TAF period. West to southwest winds 10-20 kts will
gust to 30 kts during the afternoon. Light winds return tonight
into early Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/18Z through Tuesday 21/18Z...VFR conditions
are forecast through the period. Southwest winds 10-20 kts
gusting 25-30 kts are expected on Sunday afternoon. Stronger winds
are expected on Monday, with gusts 30-45 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Dry and
breezy weather will continue through the weekend with critical fire
weather conditions expected on Monday. Look for southwest winds 10-
20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Sunday, increasing to 20-30 mph
with gusts to 50 mph on Monday. Minimum RH values between 5-15%. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday over parts of northern
Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Winds will decrease on Tuesday but remain
breezy with minimum RH 5-15% each day. Expect winds 10-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ107>110-112>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff