Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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709 FXUS65 KFGZ 222023 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 123 PM MST Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place across northern Arizona through Saturday leading to near critical fire weather conditions across northeast Arizona. On Sunday, high pressure will bring lighter winds and a warming trend that is forecast to persist through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...For the remainder of this afternoon and tonight, expect a continuation of clear skies and dry weather. Wind speeds will decrease after 2 pm MST, with low temperatures Thursday morning ranging from the low-30s to the low-50s at most places. From Thursday through Saturday, a zonal flow pattern will remain in place allowing a couple of dry low pressure systems to impact the area. No precipitation is expected, but breezy southwest winds and low afternoon humidity will combine to produce near critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday near the Little Colorado River Valley. At this point, Friday afternoon appears to have the greatest potential for critical fire weather, with a 30-50% chance of exceeding Red Flag conditions. On Sunday, high pressure will build over the area leading to a decrease in wind speeds and a warming trend. By the middle of next week, northern Arizona may see high temperatures between 5-10 degrees above average. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 22/18Z through Thursday 23/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions except for local reduced visibility from smoke due to prescribed burns. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts until around 02Z then becoming light. Southwest winds will develop again after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...VFR conditions will persist but with periods of local reduced visibility in smoke due to prescribed burns. Expect southwest winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon with lighter winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Look for dry conditions with mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting near 25 mph today, becoming 10-20 mph gusting near 35 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 8-18% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures through Saturday. Southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the Little Colorado River Valley on Friday and Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff