759
FXUS65 KFGZ 030335
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
835 PM MST Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected
as high pressure builds into the into Arizona for the start of the
week. Slightly cooler temperatures return near the end of the week,
along with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...Occasional high clouds overnight, but overall clear
skies as high pressure gradually builds into Arizona. Warmer
temperatures and continued dry conditions ensue for Monday.

Afternoon forecast package is on track, with no major changes
needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...The remainder of today will
feature gusty SW winds this afternoon as a trough continues to
move east across the region. Gusts will range 20-30 mph.

Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure gradually building into
the region with temperatures warming following this past
weekend`s brief drop in temperatures. The warming for Monday and
Tuesday will still be slowed thanks to upper level clouds as a
weak disturbance passes north of the region. Dry weather will
persist through the period.

Wednesday and Thursday will bring some of the warmest weather of
the season. Temperatures from Tuesday to Wednesday with high
pressure centered overhead will jump by 5 degrees or more and
likely warm another couple degrees by Thursday, becoming 10-15
degrees above normal. While this is happening, a low will be
setting itself up off the coast of Baja California. Because of
said low, it is worth noting that the deterministic NBM is
running at the high end of guidance and increasing mid to upper
level moisture could allow some cloud cover to start developing in
the afternoon Thursday, holding temperatures back slightly.

Friday remains somewhat of a buffer day: the aforementioned low
of the Baja California coast will start to slide north Friday
based on ensemble guidance. This, combined with the eastward
shifting high is resulting in some spread in models for conditions
Friday. Temperatures from the deterministic NBM are running very
high compared to the projected spread. More clouds and some
perception chances that day pending the moisture input from the
low could bring temperatures down a couple more degrees than
currently forecast. That drop in temperature would pull the need
for another day of heat related products...so stay tuned.

Moving into next weekend, confidence increases in precipitation
chances for the Southwest US. Coverage still doesn`t look
widespread combined with moisture remaining elevated so more
limited rainfall amounts from high based convection looks to be
the main story. If you look at the CPC graphics, they indicate
high odds in above normal precipitation chances for us, which
makes sense given that this time of year should typically be dry,
but don`t let said graphics trick you into believing we are going
to have widespread meaningful rainfall. In fact, with fuels
continuing to dry and the threat of lightning with high based
convection, new lightning starts from dry thunderstorms are a real
threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 03/00Z through Tuesday 04/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early
morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 04/00Z through Thursday 06/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds less than 10kts overnight and
in the early morning hours. Winds generally variable and less than
15kts in the daylight hours, but trending west through northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Seasonable temperatures and
dry conditions continue. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts
to 25 mph on Monday, westerly at 10 to 20 mph on Tuesday. Winds will
be light for the overnight and early morning hours. RH values less
than 15 percent each afternoon, with widely varying recoveries at
night, ranging from 35 to 75 percent.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures climbing more than 10
degrees above normal. Mostly dry, but chances for high based showers
and thunderstorms develop by Thursday over the eastern zones, then
increasing and moving westward Friday. Winds generally light, but
trending westerly and northwesterly. Afternoon RH values staying
below 15 percent, with mostly poor overnight recoveries.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/RKR
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff