608
FNUS75 KFGZ 131852
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Bear...Fort Apache
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1152 AM MST Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MST on June 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy skies today, with an increasing chance of
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon through the overnight hours. Wetting rains are
unlikely, but a few light showers are possible. Dry lightning and gusty/erratic winds
will be the biggest concern with storm development. Outside of storm driven winds,
look for west-southwest winds 10-20 mph today becoming southwest around 10 mph tomorrow.
Overnight winds expected to be out of the north and less than 5 mph. Drier and slightly cooler
conditions will return on Friday. Minimum RH values will generally be below 10% each afternoon,
with overnight recoveries in the 45-55% range tonight and 25-35% range tomorrow night.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and chance for thunderstorms
                    later in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......15-30 percent. Greatest chances after 5 PM MST.
Max temperature.....93-98 degrees.
Min humidity........Around 10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph becoming westerly near 15 mph
                    later in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow winds possible.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2368.
Mixing height.......14800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 knots.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms through the night.
Chance of pcpn......20-30 percent. Decreasing after 5 AM MST Friday.
Min temperature.....62-68 degrees.
Max humidity........46-52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 knots shifting to the north in
                    the late evening and overnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy during the early morning, becoming sunny
                    throughout the day.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....93-97 degrees.
Min humidity........5-10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon around 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2088.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13500
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....East around 5 knots shifting to the west late
                    in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...KONIECZNY
Requested by...SITL
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415841.5/FGZ
.DELDT 06/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 2024.bear.situation@firenet.gov