156
FNUS75 KFGZ 122014
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Bear...Fort Apache
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
114 PM MST Wed Jun 12 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MST on June 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures 2-10 degrees above average are expected both
Thursday and Friday afternoon. Look for rain/thunderstorm potential to return
near 5 PM MST Thursday and continue through ~11 AM MST Friday. The chance of
wetting rains is minimal, so dry lightning and gusty/erratic winds will be the
main threat associated with the rain/storm potential. Outside of strong winds
associated with storm development, look for afternoon winds generally out of the
southwest between 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values will be in the 5-10% range each afternoon.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms after 5 PM MST.
Chance of pcpn......25-35 percent.
Max temperature.....95-100 degrees.
Min humidity........5-10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph in the morning, shifting to the
                    west-southwest 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds possible near thunderstorms.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1925.
Mixing height.......10900 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 15100
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....North around 0 knots shifting to the southeast
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms throughout the night.
Chance of pcpn......15-30 percent.
Min temperature.....62-68 degrees.
Max humidity........35-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds around 5-10 mph in the evening, shifting
                    to the north overnight around 5 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 knots shifting to the north in
                    the late evening and overnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy, becoming sunny in the afternoon. Slight chance
                    of showers/thunderstorms early.
Chance of pcpn......10-20 percent.
Max temperature.....90-95 degrees.
Min humidity........5-10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon gusting near
                    15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds possible near storm development.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2068.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12000
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....East around 5 knots increasing to southwest
                    around 15 knots in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then shifting to the west late in
                    the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...KONIECZNY
Requested by...SITL
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415841.4/FGZ
.DELDT 06/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 2024.bear.situation@firenet.gov