336
FNUS75 KFGZ 130043
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Cienega Creek...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
543 PM MST Wed Jun 12 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MST on June 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue
through tonight and into Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures
and chances for precipitation Thursday night and Friday.

West winds this evening will become light northerly winds overnight.
Winds will increase Thursday morning out of the southwest 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up around 25 to 30 mph through the afternoon. Winds become
light Thursday night, increasing out of the southwest 10 to 15 with gusts
to 25 mph on Friday.

Afternoon RH values will be in the 10 to 15 percent range with moderate
to poor overnight recoveries.

Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning. Chance for wetting rains is minimal but expect
gusty/erratic winds and lightning with any storms that do develop.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....50 to 52.
Max humidity........30 to 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 mph, becoming northwest to
                    north around 5 mph after midnight.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 knots shifting to the north
                    overnight.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny with isolated showers after 4 PM.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent after 4 PM.
Max temperature.....83 to 85.
Min humidity........10 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North to east winds around 5 mph in the morning,
                    shifting to southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    25 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2314.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL early in the morning increasing to
                    15700 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....East around 5 knots shifting to the south 10 to
                    15 knots in the late morning and afternoon.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers with
                    isolated thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....50 to 54.
Max humidity........50 to 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to west winds around 10 mph, becoming
                    northwest to north around 5 mph after 10 PM. Gusty
                    and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 knots shifting to the north in
                    the late evening and overnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Chance of
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms before 11 AM.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....77 to 80.
Min humidity........10 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph in the morning,
                    shifting to southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    25 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    possible near thunderstorms.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......4010.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13100
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....West around 15 knots increasing to southwest 25
                    to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...MEOLA
Requested by...Justin Thompson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415846.4/FGZ
.DELDT 06/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL azsdc@firenet.gov