676
FXUS63 KFSD 081033
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
533 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers will be possible through the MO River
  corridor today. Any precipitation amounts would be very light.

- Pleasant with seasonable temperatures for Sunday and Monday.
  It will be dry both days.

- Returning chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday
  night into Tuesday. Temperatures are then forecasted to rise
  to above seasonal norms for the middle and end of next week as
  upper level ridging slowly builds across the western CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A diffuse frontal boundary and an upper level shortwave has been
producing a band of showers across the eastern portions of the CWA
early this morning. This activity is expected to exit the area by
12Z. Otherwise, weak high pressure begins to build into the region
today, and with cooling 850 mb temperatures, highs will be a touch
lower than yesterday - topping out in the lower to mid 70s. Although
it will be mostly dry, another shortwave will track through northern
NE through the day. This in conjunction with upper level lift
provided by a jet oriented NW to SE over the Northern Plains, and
developing midlevel frontogenesis, may trigger a few showers along
the MO River corridor and southward today. Even so, any
precipitation amounts would be light with soundings indicating dry
air in the low levels. Thunderstorms are not expected with
instability residing well to our south. Any isolated showers would
end by early this evening, leading to a cool night tonight with
seasonably cool lows - in the lower to mid 50s.

Stronger high pressure builds across the region for Sunday and
Monday. This will lead to a pleasant couple of days with highs in
the 70s to near 80. Winds are expected to be relatively light
through the period, although somewhat breezy west of Interstate 29
on Monday afternoon in a tightening surface pressure gradient.

Related to this, models are in good agreement on a surface trough
developing over the western High Plains during the day on Monday.
This trough will push to the east on Monday night into Tuesday,
pulling a cold front through our area by mid day on Tuesday. With
that, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
area on Monday night into early Tuesday - with increasing mid/lower
level theta e advection related to a low level jet oriented ahead of
the eastward tracking trough. Current models would indicate only
weak instability and shear over our area during this time frame, so
severe storms are not expected.

After that, models indicate the upper level pattern transitioning to
a more zonal flow through midweek, then trending toward upper level
ridging by the end of the week. With these trends, temperatures will
warm back to above normal through much of the remainder of the week,
with highs well into the 80s. There will be periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances, especially for midweek, as a series of
shortwaves traverse the zonal upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Areas of MVFR stratus over northwestern IA early this morning
will lift by mid morning. Otherwise, spotty showers will be
possible through the MO River Valley today, though precipitation
amounts would be very light with dry air in the low levels.
Winds will be northerly and relatively light through the TAF
period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM