Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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326 FXUS63 KFSD 080332 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1032 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the evening, a few of which could become strong to severe along the Missouri River. - Slightly cooler temperatures with relatively light winds for the upcoming weekend. - Periodic chances for showers and storms heading into the new week, with temperatures forecast to rise near/above seasonal norms as upper level ridging builds across the western CONUS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT: Dreary conditions continue across the region, with latest observations showing cloudy skies, scattered showers, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Expect much of the same through the evening, with a few isolated thunderstorms capable of becoming strong to severe west of the James River and along/south of the MO River. SPC`s latest Day 1 Outlook did expand the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk a touch further north and also introduced a small Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across portions of Gregory/Charles Mix counties. In regard to dynamics, still have abundant shear in place, with 0-6 km values exceeding 50kts. That being said, instability still remains rather meager across our area, as the better buoyancy (1000+ J/kg) sits further south. Thus, believe the primary hazards will be quarter size hail and damaging gusts up to 60 MPH with any storm that does become severe. As always, we encourage you to have a way to receive warnings. Additional showers/storms will be possible in areas along and east of I-29 overnight as another upper level wave drifts across the region. Do think it`s worth noting, however, that the severe threat will have diminished across our area by then. Given the lack of significant moisture, expect overall accumulations to remain less than a quarter of an inch. Lows during this time will also be fairly mild, as cloud cover keeps temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A narrow corridor of showers will be possible along/south of I-90 near daybreak Saturday, which should diminish by early afternoon. Sfc high pressure then slides overhead, allowing dry conditions to prevail for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures look to be a touch cooler, with afternoon highs largely in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies. North/northwest winds will also remain fairly light, so get outside and enjoy the weather if you can! MONDAY AND BEYOND: Brief upper level ridging builds across the region heading into the new week, keeping conditions dry for most of Monday. While model consistency has been rather poor the last few days, have started to see some agreement with the latest runs in regards to the upper level pattern. Latest consensus now has a pronounced trough and sfc cold front pushing eastward across the Northern Plains Monday evening, causing showers/storms to return to the forecast again. Precipitation looks to persist through much of Tuesday, with a lull in activity occurring Tuesday evening as upper level flow turns quasi-zonal. A series of shortwaves then takes aim at the region for the remainder of the week, resulting in periodic chances for showers/storms. In regard to temperatures, look for highs to rise from the lower 70s Monday into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Lows will generally remain in the 50s to 60s. Otherwise, expect broad upper level ridging to develop over the western CONUS late next week, resulting in near/above normal temperatures. As alluded to in the previous discussion, the NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate 700/850 mb temperatures near the 90th percentile with respect to climatology during this time. Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The previously mentioned scattered showers have exited the area this evening. The second round of showers is on track to move into locations north of highway-14 over the next hour or two. A few rumbles of thunder are possible in this cluster of showers. The showers are expected to track along and northeast of Wessington Springs, SD to Sioux Falls, SD to Spencer, IA line through the overnight hours. Confidence has grown in the possibility of MVFR ceilings developing overnight. As such, have added MVFR ceilings to KFSD and KSUXs TAFs. A few models show the possibility of IFR stratus. However, confidence is too low to include in a TAF at this time. The MVFR stratus looks to lift through the morning hours tomorrow. A second round of showers is possible during the daylight hours mainly across the Missouri River Valley. However, have left out of KSUXs TAF as dry air in the low level looks to preclude any rain from reaching the surface. Aside from rain chances, light northerly winds will persist for the majority of the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...Meyers