243
FXUS63 KFSD 081944
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
244 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions prevail Sunday and Monday with seasonable
  temperatures.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms return Monday evening
  and continue through much of the week. Temperatures during
  this time will gradually rise to/above seasonal norms as upper
  level ridging builds across the western CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

CURRENT THROUGH MONDAY: Outside of a few isolated showers along the
MO River Valley this morning, have seen largely dry conditions
prevail across the region. Latest observations also show
temperatures in the lower 70s, with N/NE winds gusting up to 20 MPH
in areas east of I-29. Gusts quickly diminish near sunset, with
light and variable winds then forecast to prevail overnight as
temperatures fall into the lower 50s.

Sfc high pressure slides overhead Sunday, keeping conditions dry
across the region through Monday afternoon. Highs will be a touch
warmer during this time, as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Winds should also remain relatively light, although
somewhat breezy west of I-29 Monday afternoon as the SPG tightens.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH BEYOND: Upper level trough and sfc cold front
push eastward across the Northern Plains Monday evening, causing
precipitation chances to return to the forecast. Guidance remains in
fairly decent agreement that showers/storms will develop by midnight
Monday and continue through Tuesday afternoon. Still not seeing much
in the way of shear and instability though, which should keep the
overall threat for severe weather low. Nonetheless, will continue to
monitor trends in the coming days.

Flow turns quasi-zonal in the wake of the aforementioned trough, with
multiple shortwaves progged to take aim at the region for the
remainder of the week. The first expected to occur Wednesday
afternoon/evening, followed by another round of showers/storms
Thursday afternoon. That being said, quite a bit of variability
still exists to put too much confidence behind any one solution. Do,
however, think it`s worth noting that SPC`s Latest Day 5 Outlook
does have portions of our area outlined in a 15% chance for severe
weather. In regard to temperatures, have afternoon highs gradually
rising into the mid 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday/Thursday.

Otherwise, expect upper level ridging to build across the western
CONUS by the end of the week. This should result in a brief lull in
activity across our area, with temperatures remaining at/above
seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this TAF cycle. Aside from
some scattered showers along the MO River Valley early this
afternoon, should see dry conditions persist for the remainder of
the period. Otherwise, look for N/NE winds to become light and
variable overnight, with direction turning N/NW late Sunday
morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...SST