935
FXUS64 KFWD 060821
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 103 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

The weak front that pushed through behind Wednesday morning`s
MCS continues to be stalled, draped across Central Texas. With
surface winds becoming light across the region, this boundary can
be seen by a sharper dewpoint gradient: 60s to the north and 70s
to the south. Calm winds and generally clear conditions will
persist through this morning as a surface ridge stays planted
across the Ark-La-Tex, allowing efficient radiational cooling to
take place. Expect temperatures to be able to bottom out mainly in
the 60s. These aforementioned conditions, coupled with lower
dewpoint depressions and antecedent saturated soils, will allow
for the formation of patchy fog through mid-morning. This will be
especially true for areas near and east of I-35, where the most
recent rainfall fell.

Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is in store for North and
Central Texas to end out the week as upper level ridging builds
in. However, a cold front will advance south through the Central
Plains as its upper level support moves into New England. The
front should make it into Oklahoma today. While subsidence from
the aforementioned ridge should stunt much convective initiation,
a subtle shortwave disturbance rounding the periphery of the ridge
will allow for isolated storms chances to develop to our
northwest this afternoon. Have retained low 20% or less PoPs for
our northwestern counties this afternoon for the potential for a
stray shower/storm. Otherwise, expect a warm afternoon with highs
in the 90s region-wide.

The front will stall before making it south of the Red River on
Friday, and will eventually be ushered north as a warm front.
Another impulse rounding the ridge will allow for the potential
for rain/storms near the front, but expansive dry air underneath
the mid-level moisture and overall subsidence will keep most dry
on Friday as well. Have persisted with low chance PoPs along the
Red River as some guidance continues to show light precipitation
echoes during this time.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend and Next Week/

Mid-level ridging will dominate the pattern this weekend, allowing
for hot and mainly rain-free conditions to prevail. Saturday
should be the warmest day with most of the area climbing to the
mid 90s. Although a stiff southerly breeze will provide some
relief from the heat, dew points in the low 70s will result in
heat index values in the 100-105 range.

A weakness in the ridge, digging shortwave trough, and a weak
cold front moving into the area will open the door for a short-
lived period of more active weather late this weekend into early
next week. Northwest flow aloft should return by Sunday and open
the door for additional overnight/early morning MCSs to move into
the area, mainly Sunday and Monday nights.

The ensemble mean guidance is indicating a resurgence of mid-level
ridging over West Texas in the middle to late parts of next week.
While most guidance keeps weak northwest flow over North Texas,
the dominance of the high to our southwest should nudge the MCS
activity further north with only a 10% chance of thunderstorm
chances continuing beyond Tuesday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 103 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

A much quieter night is expected with light/variable winds and VFR
prevailing at all TAF sites. There is potential for patchy
mist/fog to occur after midnight into the mid-morning hours thanks
to the aforementioned conditions and antecedent soil
moisture/rainfall. Guidance is not showing much of a reduction in
visibilities, so have kept 6SM for now until we see how
observational trends occur.

Winds will eventually settle out of the ESE-SE later this
afternoon and will prevail through the rest of the period. Some
mid-level cloud cover is possible later this (Thursday) evening,
but will not cause flight/operational impacts.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  73  94  76  96 /   0   5   5   0   0
Waco                93  70  93  74  94 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               91  69  89  71  91 /   0   5  20   0   0
Denton              94  70  93  75  94 /   0  10  10   0   0
McKinney            93  70  92  74  94 /   0   5  10   0   0
Dallas              96  72  94  76  96 /   0   5   5   0   0
Terrell             91  70  92  73  93 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           93  71  94  74  92 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              94  70  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  70  95  73  96 /   0  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$