319
FXUS64 KFWD 050005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
705 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

Thunderstorms continue to develop north of the region associated
with a shortwave trough moving east through the Plains. Convection
is initiating along a surface front which extends from Minnesota
south to the Texas Panhandle, and will continue to develop
southward along this front this evening as it pushes southeast.
Upscale development is likely across Oklahoma tonight as the
front and shortwave interact with a highly unstable airmass. A
QLCS will be the likely result, with a line of storms pushing
south across the Red River shortly after midnight. This line will
continue south through roughly the eastern half of the forecast
area overnight through Wednesday morning, eventually exiting to
our southeast around midday Wednesday.

The western extent of the anticipated linear complex is a bit
uncertain. At this time, model consensus is that it will be
somewhere near the I-35 corridor, as any convective attempts
farther west will likely be shut down by a mid level ridge
centered over the Desert Southwest. The severe threat will be
highest along the Red River where a large hail and damaging wind
concern will exist, though a severe wind threat may may extend as
far south as the I-20 corridor. Gusty winds associated with
outflow will remain possible as the complex pushes farther south
Wednesday morning, but a strong capping inversion will keep the
Wednesday morning activity mostly elevated and sub-severe.
The potential for locally heavy rain following recent rainfall
will also make flooding a good possibility, and a Flood Watch
will hence remain in place for areas along and east of a line from
Sherman to Palestine tonight through Wednesday.

The front will push south into Central Texas before stalling on
Wednesday. An isolated storm or two may redevelop Wednesday
afternoon across the southern most counties in the vicinity of
the stationary boundary, but subsidence in the wake of the exiting
shortwave will keep most folks dry. Thankfully, the front and/or
outflow will knock a few degrees off the dewpoint temperatures,
making Wednesday much more bearable compared to today. The Heat
Advisory will therefore be allowed to expire on time this evening.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain
chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region-
wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in
the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas
Thursday afternoon.

Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great
Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains
toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is
highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the
Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next
few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise
placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a
subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection
from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence
in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to
get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across
portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft
will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of
producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible.
If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains
by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and
west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under
active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity
will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing
north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average
temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend.

Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold
front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame,
increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection
across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased
cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures
back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A thunderstorm complex moving south overnight will affect the DFW
Metroplex 08Z to 13Z Wednesday, but should remain east of KACT.
MVFR ceilings will accompany the precipitation and will likely
linger across the DFW area until 18Z. A weak front will shift
winds to the east-northeast around 18Z Wednesday in the Metroplex,
and around 21Z at KACT.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  91  73  95  76 /  50  20   0   0   5
Waco                76  93  73  92  74 /  20  30   5   0   0
Paris               66  87  68  92  70 /  70  20   0   0   5
Denton              68  90  71  93  72 /  50  20   0   0   5
McKinney            68  89  70  93  72 /  60  20   0   0   5
Dallas              69  92  73  95  75 /  50  30   0   0   5
Terrell             68  89  70  92  73 /  60  40   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  90  73  92  75 /  40  50   5   0   0
Temple              77  94  74  93  74 /   5  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       76  92  71  95  73 /  20  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-120>123-135-148.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-156>160-174-
175.

&&

$$